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I'm currently trying to write a human-AI trade idea similar to the idea by Rolf Nelson (and David Matolcsi), but one which avoids Nate Soares and Wei Dai's manyrefutations.
I'm planning to leverage logical risk aversion, which Wei Dai seems to agree with, and a complicated argument for why humans and ASI will have bounded utility functions over logical uncertainty. (There is no mysterious force that tries to fix the Pascal's Mugging problem for unbounded utility functions, hence bounded utility functions are more likely to succeed)
I'm also working on arguments why we can't just wait till the singularity to do the logic trade (counterfactuals are weird, and the ASI will only be logically uncertain for a brief moment).
Unfortunately my draft is currently a big mess. It's been 4 months and I'm procrastinating pretty badly on this idea :/ can't quite find the motivation.
A while ago I tried using AI suggest writing improvements on a different topic, and I didn't really like any of the suggestions. It felt like the AI didn't understand what I was trying to say. Maybe the topic was too different from its training data.
But maybe it doesn't hurt to try again, I heard the newer AI are smarter.
If I keep procrastinating maybe AI capabilities will get so good they actually can do it for me :/