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der's Shortform

by der
30th Jan 2025
1 min read
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This is a special post for quick takes by der. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
der's Shortform
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[-]der7mo50

Prediction (influenced by R1-Zero): By EOY, expert-level performance will be reported on outcome prediction for a certain class of AI experiments - those that can be specified concisely in terms of code and data sets that:

  1. are frequently used and can be referenced by name, e.g. MNIST digits, or
  2. are small enough to be given explicitly, or
  3. are synthetic, specified by their exact distribution in code.
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