A brief history of things that have defined my timelines to AGI since learning about AI safety <2 years ago

• Bio anchors gave me a rough ceiling around 1e40 FLOP for how much compute will easily make AGI.
• Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute brought that same 'training-compute-FLOP needed for AGI' down a bunch to around 1e35 FLOP.
• Researching how much compute is scaling in the near future.

At this point I think it was pretty concentrated across ~1e27 - 1e33 flop so very long tail and something like a 2030-2040 50% CI. 

• The benchmarks+gaps argument to partial AI research automation.
• The takeoff forecast for how partial AI research automation will translate to algorithmic progress.
• The trend in METR's time horizon data.

At this point my middle 50% CI is like 2027 - 2035, and would be tighter if not for a long tail that I keep around just because I think it's have a bunch of uncertainty. Though I do wish I had more arguments in place to justify the tail or make it bigger, ones that compete in how compelling they feel to me to the ones above.