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Tyrrell_McAllister | v0.0.37Aug 16th 2011 | (+80) Added link to write-up of proof of Aumann's agreement theorem |

*Related tags and wikis: *Disagreement, Modesty, Modesty argument, Aumann agreement, The Aumann Game

**Aumann's agreement theorem**, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common ~~priors,~~priors, and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

- The Modesty Argument
- Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
- The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
- The Proper Use of Humility
- Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
- Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
- Bayesian Judo

- A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

- (PDF)
- (PDF, Talk video)

** Aumann'Aumann's agreement theorem**, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each

~~The Modesty Argument~~~~Agreeing to Agree~~~~by~~~~Hal Finney~~~~The Coin Guessing Game~~~~by Hal Finney~~~~The Proper Use of Humility~~~~Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus~~~~by~~~~Carl Shulman~~~~(OB)~~~~Probability Space & Aumann Agreement~~~~by~~~~Wei Dai~~~~Bayesian Judo~~

~~A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem~~~~(pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister~~

~~(~~~~PDF~~~~)~~~~(~~~~PDF~~~~,~~~~Talk video~~~~)~~

- The Modesty Argument
~~by~~~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~ - Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
~~(OB)~~ - The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
~~(OB) - A toy problem illustrating the mechanics of Aumann agreement.~~ - The Proper Use of Humility
~~by~~~~Eliezer Yudkowsky~~ - Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
- Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
- Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky

- The Modesty Argument by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney (OB)
- The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney (OB) - A toy problem illustrating the mechanics of Aumann agreement.
- The Proper Use of Humility by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
- Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
- Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem
~~(pdf)~~(pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

Tyrrell_McAllister v0.0.37Aug 16th 2011 (+80) Added link to write-up of proof of Aumann's agreement theorem

- The Modesty Argument by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney (OB)
- The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney (OB) - A toy problem illustrating the mechanics of Aumann agreement.
- The Proper Use of Humility by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
- Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
- Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky
- A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem(pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister