Aumann's Agreement Theorem

Related tags and wikis: Disagreement, Modesty, Modesty argument, Aumann agreement, The Aumann Game

Highlighted Blog postsPosts

Aumann's agreement theorem, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors,priors, and have common knowledge of each other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

Highlighted Blog posts

• The Modesty Argument
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
• The Proper Use of Humility
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo

External Links

• A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

See also

• Disagreement
• Modesty argument
• Aumann agreement
• The Aumann Game
• Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"

References

• (PDF)
• (PDF, Talk video)

Aumann'Aumann's agreement theorem, roughly speaking, says that two agents acting rationally (in a certain precise sense) and with common knowledge of each other'other's beliefs cannot agree to disagree. More specifically, if two people are genuine Bayesians, share common priors,priors, and have common knowledge of each other'other's current probability assignments, then they must have equal probability assignments.

Blog posts

• The Modesty Argument
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
• The Proper Use of Humility
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo

External Links

• A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

See also

• Disagreement
• Modesty argument
• Aumann agreement
• The Aumann Game

References

• (PDF)

• (PDF, Talk video)

Tags

• Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"

• The Modesty Argument
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney
• The Proper Use of Humility
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky

• The Modesty Argument by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney (OB)
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney (OB) - A toy problem illustrating the mechanics of Aumann agreement.
• The Proper Use of Humility by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky

External Links

• Disagreement
• Modesty argument
• Aumann agreement
• The Aumann Game

• The Modesty Argument by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Agreeing to Agree by Hal Finney (OB)
• The Coin Guessing Game by Hal Finney (OB) - A toy problem illustrating the mechanics of Aumann agreement.
• The Proper Use of Humility by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• Meme Lineages and Expert Consensus by Carl Shulman (OB)
• Probability Space & Aumann Agreement by Wei Dai
• Bayesian Judo by Eliezer Yudkowsky
• A write-up of the proof of Aumann's agreement theorem(pdf) (pdf) by Tyrrell McAllister

• Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"
• Gadgets
• blog

• Overcoming Bias posts on "Disagreement"
• Gadgets
• blog