Eliezer Yudkowsky and RolfAndreassen: 25 dollars on the discovery of the Higgs. EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics. (Original comment) Resolution: five-sigma evidence of Higgs boson did appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.
Paul Crowley (User:ciphergoth) and mattnewport: $50 on "10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state" Thread
"When someone designs a superintelligent AI (it won't be Eliezer), without paying any attention to Friendliness (the first person who does it won't), and the world doesn't end (it won't), it will be interesting to hear Eliezer's excuses."
Robin Hanson and Joshua Fox: $3000 linked to S&P500 about whether AI's will be ems or de-novo once non-biological general intelligence has most of the computing power. (That's an informal summary. See LessWrong and Overcoming Bias for a more precise statement of the bet.)
Robin Hanson and Joshua Fox: $3000 linked to S&P500 about whether AI's will be ems or de-novo once non-biological general intelligence has most of the computing power. (That's an informal summary. See LesswrongLessWrong and Overcoming Bias for a more precise statement of the bet.)
1(Robin Hanson and Joshua Fox): $3000 linked to S&P500 about whether AI's will be ems or de-novo once non-biological general intelligence has the most of the computing power. (See 2(Lesswrong) and 3(Overcoming Bias) for a more precise statement of the bet.)
Eliezer Yudkowsky and MixedNuts: $100 in 2012 against $200 (real) in 2112 that the Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing. (comment)