Bets Registry

Ruby (+9/-5)
gwern (+25) /* Bets decided in 2017 */ resolved; Eliezer has conceded & paid me
JoshuaFox (+9/-9) /* Bets decided eventually */
JoshuaFox (+49/-225) /* Bets decided eventually */
JoshuaFox (+196/-6) Hanson/Fox Bet
JoshuaFox (+257) Hanson/Fox Bet
gwern (+239) +new EYxMixedNuts bet see http://lesswrong.com/lw/ece/rationality_quotes_september_2012/7ggt
gwern (+11/-10) sp. made redirect for the typo
gwern (+156) +my bet with eliezer
Paul Crowley (+278) Add 2010 terrorism bet
  • Paul Crowley (User:ciphergoth) and mattnewport: $50 on "10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state" Thread
  • 1(Robin Hanson and Joshua Fox): $3000 linked to S&P500 about whether AI's will be ems or de-novo once non-biological general intelligence has the most of the computing power. (See 2(Lesswrong) and 3(Overcoming Bias) for a more precise statement of the bet.)

Bets decided in 2112

  • Eliezer Yudkowsky and MixedNuts: $100 in 2012 against $200 (real) in 2112 that the Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing. (comment)

Bets decided eventually

Bets decided in 2017

Bets decided eventually

Bets decided in 2010

  • Paul Crowley (User:ciphergoth) and mattnewport: $50 on "10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state" Thread
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