Great Filter

The development of space-framing intelligent life requires many steps to occur in sequence, such as the emergence of single-celled life and the transition from unicellular to multicellular life forms. Since we have not observed intelligent life beyond our planet, Hanson argues that there seemsseems to be a developmental step that is so difficult and unlikely that it "filters out" nearlynearly all civilizations before they can reach a space-faring stage — a "great filter".

 From Hanson's essay:

Humanity seems to have a bright future, i.e., a non-trivial chance of expanding to fill the universe with lasting life. But the fact that space near us seems dead now tells us that any given piece of dead matter faces an astronomically low chance of begating such a future. There thus exists a great filter between death and expanding lasting life, and humanity faces the ominous question: how far along this filter are we? 

The Great Filter is a proposed explanation forreframing of the Fermi Paradox, introduced by Robin Hanson in his 1998 essay The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?.

The development of space-framing intelligent life requires many steps,steps to occur in sequence, such as the emergence of single-celled life and the transition from unicellular to multicellular life forms. Since we have not observed intelligent life beyond our planet, Hanson argues that there seems to be a developmental step that is so difficult and unlikely that it "filters out" nearly all civilizations before they can reach a space-faring stage. Robin Hanson coined the term in his 1998 essay The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?stage — a "great filter".

 From thatHanson's essay:

The Great FilterIf there is a "Great Filter", then this filter might be a step in our evolutionary past, in which case our civilization has already passed it.

But the hard step might also be ahead of us: surviving the creation of nuclear bombs, AGI, future biotechnology, nanotechnology, or an asteroid impact 1.some unknown risk. In that case, we should be worried, as the Great Filter seems to have been successful in stopping the development of every other civilization so far. Estimating

This suggests that estimating the location of the Great Filter is thusmay be important for helping estimate the magnitude of existential risk. Many efforts have been made in that direction, but much remains uncertain.

TracesIf we discovered traces of life on other planets are planets, this would count as evidence for a later Great Filter2. If we were to findFilter. Finding that complex life had evolved independently both on Earth and some other nearby planet, it would suggest that getting to such a developmental stage was relatively easy. Thus the Great Filter would almost certainly have to be at a later stage.

The study of past mass extinctions and astrobiology can provide ideas for estimating the location of thea Great Filter. However, there are many difficulties involved. For instance, the time that it takes to pass a step doesn't reveal much about how easy or hard that step was. Robin Hanson gives the following example in his seminal paper:

"…say [S]ay you have one hour to pick five locks by trial and error, locks with 1,2,3,4, and 5 dials of ten numbers, so that the expected time to pick each lock is .01,.1, 1, 10, and 100 hours respectively. Then just looking at those rare cases when you do pick all five locks in the hour, the average time to pick the first two locks would be .0096 and .075 hours respectively, close to the usual expected times of .01 and .1 hours. The average time to pick the third lock, however, would be .20 hours, and the average time for the other two locks, and the average time left over at the end, would be .24 hours. That is, conditional on success, all the hard steps, no matter how hard, take about the same time, while easy steps take about their usual time."

Consequences 

Follow-ups

In a subsequent paper, Hanson constructs a simulation of the distribution of the hard steps, which suggests that there should be about four to seven hard steps, uniformly distributed in our past. Itpast — a series of lesser filters, rather than a single "great" one.

Hanson's follow-up also suggests that there has been at least one hard step since the evolution of hominids, and that the best extinction model that fits all these requirements is William Schopf's model.

The Great Filter is whatever has preventeda proposed explanation for the Fermi Paradox. The development of intelligent life requires many steps, such as the emergence of single-celled life and the transition from unicellular to multicellular life forms. Since we have not observed intelligent life beyond our planet, there seems to be a developmental step that is so far from developing todifficult and unlikely that it "filters out" nearly all civilizations before they can reach a space-faring stage. Robin Hanson coined the point where it would colonize the galaxy.term in his 1998 essay The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?.

 From that essay:

Humanity seems to have a bright future, i.e., a non-trivial chance of expanding to fill the universe with lasting life. But the fact that space near us seems dead now tells us that any given piece of dead matter faces an astronomically low chance of begating such a future. There thus exists a great filter between death and expanding lasting life, and humanity faces the ominous question: how far along this filter are we? 

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Should we worry?

The Great Filter might be a step in our evolutionary past, in which case our civilization has already passed it. But the hard step might also be ahead of us: surviving the creation of nuclear bombs, AGI, biotechnology, nanotechnology or an asteroid impact 1. In that case, we should be worried, as the Great Filter seems to have been successful in stopping the development of every other civilization so far. Estimating the location of the Great Filter is thus important for helping estimate the magnitude of existential risk. Manyeffortshavebeenmadein that direction, but much remains uncertain.

Traces of life on other planets are evidence for a later Great Filter2. If we were to find that complex life had evolved independently both on Earth and some other planet, it would suggest that getting to such a developmental stage was relatively easy. Thus the Great Filter would have to be at a later stage.

The study of past mass extinctions and astrobiology can provide ideas for estimating the location of the Great Filter. However, there are many difficulties involved. For instance, the time that it takes to pass a step doesn't reveal much about how easy or hard that step was. Robin Hanson,Hanson gives the following example in his seminal paper:

"…say you have one hour to pick five locks by trial and error, locks with 1,2,3,4, and 5 dials of ten numbers, so that the expected time to pick each lock is .01,.1, 1, 10, and 100 hours respectively. Then just looking at those rare cases when you do pick all five locks in the hour, the average time to pick the first two locks would be .0096

The Great Filter is a proposed explanation forwhatever has prevented life so far from developing to the Fermi Paradox. The development of intelligent life requires many steps, such aspoint where it would colonize the emergence of single-celled life and the transition from unicellular to multicellular life forms. Since we have not observed intelligent life beyond our planet, theregalaxy.

Humanity seems to behave a developmental stepbright future, i.e., a non-trivial chance of expanding to fill the universe with lasting life. But the fact that is so difficultspace near us seems dead now tells us that any given piece of dead matter faces an astronomically low chance of begating such a future. There thus exists a great filter between death and unlikely that it "filters out" nearly all civilizations before they can reach a space-faring stage.expanding lasting life, and humanity faces the ominous question: how far along this filter are we?

-- Robin Hanson coined the term in his 1998 essayHanson, The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?.

Should we worry?

The Great Filter might be a step in our evolutionary past, in which case our civilization has already passed it. But the hard step might also be ahead of us: surviving the creation of nuclear bombs, AGI, biotechnology, nanotechnology or an asteroid impact 1. In that case, we should be worried, as the Great Filter seems to have been successful in stopping the development of every other civilization so far. Estimating the location of the Great Filter is thus important for helping estimate the magnitude of existential risk. Manyeffortshavebeenmadein that direction, but much remains uncertain.

Traces of life on other planets are evidence for a later Great Filter2. If we were to find that complex life had evolved independently both on Earth and some other planet, it would suggest that getting to such a developmental stage was relatively easy. Thus the Great Filter would have to be at a later stage.

The study of past mass extinctions and astrobiology can provide ideas for estimating the location of the Great Filter. However, there are many difficulties involved. For instance, the time that it takes to pass a step doesn't reveal much about how easy or hard that step was. Robin Hanson gives the following example in his seminal paper:

"…say you have one hour to pick five locks by trial and error, locks with 1,2,3,4, and 5 dials of ten numbers, so that the expected time to pick each lock is .01,.1, 1, 10, and 100 hours respectively. Then just looking at those rare cases when you do pick all five locks in the hour, the average time to pick the first two locks would be .0096 and .075 hours respectively, close to the usual expected times

In a subsequent paper, Hanson constructs a simulation of the distribution of the hard steps, which suggests that there should be about four to seven hard steps, uniformly distributed in our past. It also suggests that there has been at least one hard step since the evolution of hominids, and that the best extinction model that fits all these requirements is William Schopf's model. Taking evolutionary arguments for AGI and observationalobservation selection effects together, Bostrom and Shulman argue that Hanson’s results can help estimate the difficulty of creating AGI.

• Existential Riskrisk
• Doomsday Argumentargument
• Self Indication Assumption

The Great Filter might be a step in our evolutionary past, in which case our civilization has already passed it. But the hard step might also be ahead of us: surviving the creation of nuclear bombs, AGI, biotechnology, nanotechnology or an asteroid impact 1. In that case, we should be worried, as the Great Filter seems to have been successful in stopping the development of every other civilization so far. Estimating the location of the Great Filter is thus important for helping estimate the magnitude of existential risk. Many efforts have been made in that direction, but much remains uncertain.

Concept and Motivation

The Great Filter is a very improbable step leading to an interstellar civilization, its existence is a proposed explanation for the Fermi Paradox. The development of intelligent life requires many steps, such as the emergence of single-celled life and the transition from unicellular to multicellular life forms. Since we have not observed intelligent life beyond our planet, there seems to be a developmental step that is so difficult and unlikely that it "filters out" nearly all civilizations before they can reach a space-faring stage. Robin Hanson coined the term in his 1998 essay The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?.

Given our actual knowledge of the universe, it is uncontroversial to assume that many other habitable planets - fulfilling the conditions for life to flourish until it develops into a interstellar civilization - are bound to exist. At the same time, there is a complete lack of evidence for the existence of other civilizations. Those two facts implies the existence of a extremely improbable step, a Great Filter, in the path leading from the basics conditions for originating life to the emergence of interstellar civilizations.

The Great Filter might be the transition from prokaryotes to eukaryotes, or from unicellular to multicellular life forms, or yet the appearance of photosynthesis. Should this be the case, we havea step in our evolutionary past, in which case our civilization has already passed through the improbable region, the filter is behind us and we shouldn’t worry.it. But the hard step might also be ahead of us: to survivesurviving the creation of nuclear bombs, AGI, biotechnology, nanotechnology or an asteroid impact 1. In this scenario, we are passing or will pass through the improbable region andthat case, we should worry.be worried, as the Great Filter seems to have been successful in stopping the development of every other civilization so far. Estimating the location of the Great Filter is a crucial taskthus important for dealing withhelping estimate the magnitude of Existentialexistential risk. Many efforts have been made in that direction, but much remains uncertain.

Traces of life inon other planets are an evidence for a later Great Filter2. Any indication, anywhere in the universe,If we were to find that complex life had evolved untilindependently both on Earth and some other planet, it would suggest that getting to such a period anterior to ours it’s an indication that evolving until such anterior period isn’t so improbable. Hence,developmental stage was relatively easy. Thus the Great Filter probable location shifts in the future direction, enhancing the chances he is just ahead of us.would have to be at a later stage.

The study of past mass extinctions and astrobiology can provide ideas for estimating the estimationlocation of the Great Filter...

Concept and Motivation

Motivation

If we knowGiven our actual knowledge of the universe, it is uncontroversial to assume that many other habitable planets - fulfilling the conditions for life to flourish until it develops into a interstellar civilization - are bound to exist and atexist. At the same time know about thetime, there is a complete lack of evidence for the existence of other civilizations thiscivilizations. Those two facts implies the existence of a extremely improbable step, a Great Filter, in the path leading from the basics conditions for originating life to the emergence of interstellar civilizations.

Estimations