Belief Update

Created by 86.129.245.179 at 2y

What you do to your beliefs, opinions and cognitive structure when new informationevidence comes along.

See Alsoalso

References

Footnotes
Overcoming Bias Articles
Less Wrong Articles
Other Resources

See Also

References

Footnotes
Overcoming Bias Articles
Less Wrong Articles
Other Resources

[[Cox's theorem]]theorem says, roughly, that if your beliefs at any given time take the form of an assignment of a numerical "plausibility score" to every proposition, and if they satisfy a few plausible axioms, then your plausibilities must effectively be probabilities obeying the usual laws of probability theory, and your updating procedure must be the one implied by [[Bayes' theorem]]theorem.

What you do to your beliefs, opinions and cognitive structure when new information comes along.

[[Cox's theorem]] says, roughly, that if your beliefs at any given time take the form of an assignment of a numerical "plausibility score" to every proposition, and if they satisfy a few plausible axioms, then your plausibilities must effectively be probabilities obeying the usual laws of probability theory, and your updating procedure must be the one implied by [[Bayes' theorem]].