Alexei

Alexei's Comments

Is it worthwhile to save the cord blood and tissue?

One source I looked at was: https://parentsguidecordblood.org/en

Some highlights:

  • There are three public cord blood banks in CA, but non in the bay area. So donating might be hard if that's where you're delivering.
  • The expected cost of cryo preserving is a bit under $2,000 upfront and $150 / yr.
  • It costs about $30,000 to obtain a cord blood collection from a public bank, and that cost is charged to the patient’s health insurance.
  • Looks like the stem cells could be used by the family members too. (Assuming it's a match, I'm guessing?). But actually the child might not be able to use them. (Is it only while they are a child?)
  • The main advantage of cord blood is that it does not have to be exactly matched to the patient like transplants from an adult donor.
  • In the United States, about 80% of cord blood donations are discarded.
  • In the United States, the net probability that a child will need any type of stem cell transplant by age 20 is 3 in 5,000 or .06%.
Open & Welcome Thread - January 2020

Can you expand on “ AI/ML capabilities research in finance” or shoot me a PM?

human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal

I’m definitely not an expert, but it does sound like a few people moved the goalposts. It sounds very similar to the "AI can't play chess" argument switching to "well, it's not really playing chess, it's just following rules" and then to *quietly mumbling something about it not having the True representation of chess*.

So, I agree with the core point. GPT-2 is writing! And it's writing pretty damn well. Whatever is left has more to do with the general cognition skill than writing.

What spiritual experiences have you had?

Great question! I will just say that I had such an experience, but don’t know how to share it in a way that feels adequate for me.

Get a Life

I think you can lead a healthy and happy life playing tennis most of your time, while avoiding the (incorrect and unhealthy, in my opinion) belief that “getting a life is finding a singular passion and pursuing it to the end”. It seems to me like a motivated reasoning used to defend what the person is doing. However the rest of the post is closer to the real truth: “I enjoy playing and teaching tennis and I find meaning in it.”

Also I think the singular/plural purpose divide is pretty smooth with plenty of people on both sides. I’ve met lots of people who say that to live your life you basically need to specialize like crazy.

My invitation to the author would be to write a similar essay to steel man the other side.

Bayesian examination

Wow, this seems huge to me! Great find! I’m not in the business of constructing tests, but if I ever do any home schooling with my children, I’ll definitely try this method.

If giving unsolicited feedback was a social norm, what feedback would you often give?

Your decision / advice is rooted in anxiety / fear. This is much more about you than about the thing you’re talking about.

Laws of John Wick

This post convinced me to watch the movies. Was not disappointed: great world building indeed.

What's the largest sunk cost you let go?
Answer by AlexeiNov 25, 201912

This was back in 2013. At that point I have been developing games (as a hobby and then professionally) for 13 years. During my free time in high school and college, that's basically all I did. And then right out of college I got a job in the game industry. I also developed and published my own game. In 2011 I moved to the bay area, joined a game startup, and it was acquired. (By Zynga, so not that exciting, but overall, I'd say things were going well.)

Around that time, I realized that there was no way making games would help with x-risk. So I left the industry. This involved letting go of the deepest passion and the most developed skill I've had at the time. It involved changing which circles I networked in. And it included abandoning all the knowledge I accumulated of the programming libraries and framework, game design, game lore, and all the half-baked game ideas I had and was hoping to develop some day.

I still stand by that decision. But I've also found a way to incorporate a bit of that old self into my present life. For example, sometimes I design a board game. Or write down and explore game ideas until I can "see" how it would be developed. Or dream about having enough money to just hire an entire studio and have them develop it.

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