Alexei

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What are you looking for in a Less Wrong post?

My bar for a normal upvote is pretty low. Sometimes I even upvote somewhat low quality posts from new authors if I think they actually tried + seems like they could get better with some encouragement.

Strong upvote is for a post that hits most of: useful, interesting, well written, credible and surprising.

Dissolving the "Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?" Question

I wanted to write a post on this topic for a while, but couldn’t find the time. I’m glad I got to do the talk instead, since that helped me with narrowing down the scope.

I have more thoughts I can type up, if people are interested.

Engaging Seriously with Short Timelines

But getting the timing [on buying options] right seems tricky to me.

Decide on how much to spend per month and just buy longest available options. (I think the payout for this gets progressively better the closer you think we are to singularity.)

Construct a portfolio to profit from AI progress.

I'd consider adding exposure to specific company candidates most likely to participate / benefit from AGI, namely: Google, Microsoft, IBM, Amazon, etc...

Also, since you're betting on a pretty drastic outcome, which is very likely not priced in correctly into the markets*, you should consider buying options instead of stocks. The cost to you is much cheaper, it's easier to get more leverage, and they payout is much bigger for the extreme cases (in your favor).

* I gave a talk that touches on this point recently. The transcript should be up in the next few weeks.

Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff

No the SSC article is about how you should pay attention to the distribution of aliens in different universes, and that in most of them you won’t find any, while the mean can still be pretty high.

What Would I Do? Self-prediction in Simple Algorithms

Do you find the solutions to problems like this manually or are there tools out there that can help or completely solve it?

Open & Welcome Thread - July 2020

Yeah I’d love to hear more about it. Anything you can share. And that could be a good material for a post too,

DARPA Digital Tutor: Four Months to Total Technical Expertise?

Wow, that's very cool! This is actually the closest existing thing to Arbital I've heard about. I guess to Eliezer's point, it does sound like they built this system in one go, without doing much of MVP-kind of iteration. But also... damn! From the sound of it, there are a lot of complicated components, and a lot of manual work that went into the whole thing. If those are the minimum requirements to build something like that, then I'm not sure we ever had a chance.

But the good news is: if this really works, then I think Arbital is totally doable and would be just the online version of this. The remaining difficult part would be monetization, but in retrospect it's quite possible Arbital should have been a non-profit.

Open & Welcome Thread - July 2020

Are you doing homeschooling? How is that going? I’m just very curious because I’m thinking about it for my children too. What is forest school?

When is it Wrong to Click on a Cow?

I feel like the obvious answer here is to look at the underlying intention.

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