Bringing a gas mask on every flight you take seems a bit excessive.
I think it would be interesting if you replied to this comment once a year or so to report how your timelines have changed.
2What is the first point at which your new model diverges from the AI 2027 timeline?
What made you update from 2028?
But once said, I think it could be difficult for him to publicly update his beliefs without losing credibility.
Both Google and Anthropic still use a lot of Nvidia compute; e.g. Trainium isn’t ready yet according to semianalysis.
Why not OA?
If there are enough of these built by then, Gemini 3 could include the largest model of 2026 (by total params count).
What do you estimate the total params count would be if so?
I am registering here that my median timeline for the Superintelligent AI researcher (SIAR) milestone is March 2032. I hope I'm wrong and it comes much later!
If anyone survives, no one builds it.