TL;DR I need help finding/developing a mech that can reliably elicit honest and effortful risk-estimates from frontier AI labs regarding their models, risk-estimates to be used in risk-priced premiums that labs then pay the government (i.e. a "Pigouvian tax for x-risk"). Current best guess: Bayesian Truth Serum. Stretch-goal: find/develop a...
Epistemic status: hot take, the core of which was written in ~10mn. Assumptions/Definitions I'm conditioning on AGI sometime within next 3~40 yrs. "Explosive growth" ≝ the kind of crazy 1yr or 6 month GDP (or GWP) doubling times Shulman talks about here, happening within this century. Setup I was just...
Literary status: lacking in grace, hopefully compensated by its information density. Inspired by, and in reply to Richard Ngo’s post of parables. Disclaimer: Though I cite ecological economics and degrowth literature, I don’t have strong credence in all their conclusions (e.g. the high probability of a catastrophic economic climacteric). I...
TL;DR: independent researcher (M.A. Philosophy) crowdsourcing questions for an upcoming survey: submit here some controversial societal goals and fears you think we should get cross-comparison public opinion data on! The driving question of the survey: what do we want the world to look like in ~50 years time? More details...
EDIT: Replaced the term "moral schizophrenia" with "internal moral disharmony" since the latter is more accurate and just. DISCLAIMER: Although this is a criticism of the LW/EA community, I offer it in good faith. I don't mean to "take down" the community in any way. You can read this as...
Epistemic Status: Pretty confident in the central conclusions, and very confident in the supporting claims from meta-logic. Any low confidence conclusions are presented as such. NB: I give an intentionally revisionary reading of what ELK is (or should be) about. Accordingly, I assume familiarity with the ELK report. Summary here....