Worth pointing out that this is up ~17x since it was posted. Sometimes, good ideas will be communicated poorly, and you'll pay a big price for not investigating yourself. (At least I did.)
Doing a post-mortem on sapphire's other posts, their track record is pretty great:
- BTC/crypto liftoff prediction: +22%
- Meta DAO: +1600%
- SAVE: -60%
- BSC Launcher: -100%?
- OLY2021: +32%
- Perpetual futures: +20%
- Perpetual futures, DeFi edition: +15%
- Bet on Biden: +40%
- AI portfolio: approx. -5% compared to index over same time period
- AI portfolio, second post: approx. +30% compared to index over same time period
- OpenAI/MSFT: ~0%
- Buy SOL: +1000%
- There are many more that I didn't look into.
All of these were over a couple weeks/months, so if you just blindly put 10% of your portfolio into each of the above, you get very impressive returns. (Overall, roughly ~5x relative to the broad market.)
Maybe it's worth it hiring some people from Dickgirls research (now renamed to clearmind?) to do investing, especially in risk-neutral contexts like philanthropic investing. @sapphire.
I will note this is both a cool as fuck project and the token is like 2x+ from when I posted. So idk why im getting downvoted. I guess lesswrong jsut isnt into finance for personal gain or to look at dope stuff.
I think more like you don't argue why you believe what you believe and instead just assert it's cool, and the whole thing looks a bit sloppy (spelling mistakes, all-caps, etc.)
1I didn't have time or energy! This shit was going parabolic! Whatever happened to Aumann's agreement theorem!
There is insane shit going on and I dont have time for an explainer but https://themetadao.org is POPPING OFF. If you like FUTURACHY join the discord or get involved.
TLDR is someone implemented hansionian futarchy. There is a 'selfish propossal' being decided over the next thirty hours. If you love this shit GET IN THERE BABY.