df fd

?good timing,

by coincident, I had some changes to my living arrangement so I was able to carry out the experiment

1st day: less than 2 hours screen time, almost 0 screen time after 1200 [noon], dreamless, but I was quite exhaust that day

2nd day: even less screen time and almost 0 screen time after 1200 [noon], I had a dream, felt to me like any standard dream, I was even more exhaust than the 1st day

3rd day: ~3 hours of screen time and almost 0 screen time 2 hours before sleep, 2 phases sleep, 1 phase dreamless, woke up at 0300 , back to sleep, phase 2 I had a dream, felt to... (read more)

Replying toI dream every night now

df fd1mo

I dream every night now

counter anecdote,

I am exposed to a screen at least 4 hours everyday, often before bedtime, yet I dream about once every 3-4 days

I also have ?some aphantasia [I could not hold an image in my mind, and it is questionable that there is an image to hold on in the first place]

undermind agree
https://app.undermind.ai/report/b640ab0305675fa1f2e0bd8dc0f706eb1010454258785d51ef11d3b1c0f9886e

Overall, the search found almost no direct evidence on whether total daily screen time predicts dream recall frequency in mixed/any‑age samples—only a child study that includes screen time and dream recall 1 and a gaming‑specific study on recall frequency 3 come close; the rest of the literature addresses media type and dream content or screen time and sleep rather than recall probability per se

assuming you know you had a dream when you remembered/recalled that you had one.

df fd2moQuick Take

Anyone is interested in donation swap?

I want to donate 1000 USD to the Lightcone Infrastructure Fundraiser but I won't get any tax break from it.
I can donate the same amount to Against Malaria fund instead

is there a service auto matching donation swap?

Replying toCancer; A Crime Story (and other tales of optimization gone wrong)

df fd3mo

Cancer; A Crime Story (and other tales of optimization gone wrong)

Maybe I have no taste but this does not read like AI slop to me,

would anyone want to help me by pointing out how we can tell it was written by AI?

df fd6mo

In my opinion:

1: "vent or problem solve" is itself an improvement from the standard typical mind falacy of there is exactly one thing people want when they complain, typically male: problem solve, female : vent, and they have trouble imagining other people may want to do things differently. so yeah if you want a 3rd thing or 4th thing, I assume you should specify

2. as you stated below I am under the impression "understanding the problem and myself" is under problem solve, and if people's "problem solve" did not help you then it's is a people problem, not a tech problem. I am assuming:
venter base assumption: "problem does not exist or unsolvable"
problem... (read 382 more words →)

Replying toSome arguments against a land value tax

df fd1y

Some arguments against a land value tax

An LVT would massively disrupt millions of people's long-term plans

this seem like a fully general argument, any law change is going to disrupt people's long term plans,

e.g. the abolishment of slavery also disrupt people's long term plans

I suppose you can argue that the magnitude is too big, put then I would assume that some period of phasing in would help.

you can argue that the short term cost is more than the long term gain but I am not convinced.

The government has incentives to inflate their estimates of the value of unimproved land

by your own logic, the government also has incentive to inflate their estimate value of income or whatever is being taxed... (read more)

Replying toVegans need to eat just enough Meat - emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility

df fd1y

Vegans need to eat just enough Meat - emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility

I maybe mistaken as to the availability of the lab grown meat to the general public. apparently they are no longer on sale

https://www.wired.com/story/upside-foods-good-meat-cultivated-lab-grown-sale-stopped-singapore-california-crenn/

seem like my information are out of date

Replying toVegans need to eat just enough Meat - emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility

df fd1y*

Vegans need to eat just enough Meat - emperically evaluate the minimum ammount of meat that maximizes utility

Or try to buy lab grown meat paste? I am given to understand that they are expensive but available

edit: upon further research it seem you can only get them in Singapore and with a very limitted selection [?one]

Replying toChaos Theory in Ecology

df fd1y

Chaos Theory in Ecology

sorry for the late reply, I was travelling

here are my guesses as to why the format made me uncomfortable

- The passage is a transcript from a spoken conversation, with incomplete sentences, colloquial phrasing, and less structured presentation compared to a well-edited article. This format can be harder to process, as spoken language often lacks the clarity and conciseness of written language.

- I am neurodivergent so the text's lack of structure, lack of context, and overwhelming detail might amplify discomfort or disengagement.

- The passage reiterates concepts in slightly different words which can feel tedious or redundant.

Replying toCost, Not Sacrifice

df fd1y

Cost, Not Sacrifice

I think another problem with the hypothetical is scope insensitive. I mean I read 10 trillions usd and feel no difference from 10 millions usd or less. And it is unclear whether 10 millions is worth 10 of my fingers, while intellectually I think 10 trillions supposed to be worth it. Hence the discomfort.

Are there alternative routes to variolate COVID instead of the respiratory tract?

df fd

So we know that there are COVID cases that only have gastrointestinal symptoms [nausea, vomiting, diarrhea]. Presumably, the virus only managed to infect gastrointestinal cells, either due to primary exposure site or innate immunology peculiarities. When these patients recovered we assumed that they are now immune to COVID.
We are primarily concerned about the effect of COVID on the respiratory system. Is it possible for us to give variolation in the form of a small, precise amount of virus in a pill that is only released in the small or large intestine?
Sure, you would have vomiting, diarrhea, fever but it would be much safer than respiratory tract variolation. Dehydration is a risk but it can be fixed much easier than whatever COVID is doing to the respiratory system.
if we are concerned about the virus contamination even then [e.g. when you vomit or fecal contamination], would intra-muscular injection of live virus work? if not why not?

Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.

df fd

So the TOGETHER trial signal boosted by Scott of slate star codex found Fluvoxamine to be effective at reducing 30% of COVID hospitalisation and fatality.

The NIH looked at the study and found it unconvicing, I am a bit confused as to the rationale.

I'll list it out as I understand it:

the primary outcomes [retention in the emergency department for >6 hours or admission to a tertiary hospital] was chosen without rationale
There was no significant difference in mortality between study arms in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population [however, it's 2% in treatment arm and 3% in placebo arm as expected of the 30% reduction expectation]
significant difference was only found in patients who have persisted in

... (read more)

raise doubt on issur

Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?

df fd

Hi all, I have a 3 yr old niece who recently really got into reading stories, is there any recommendation for good children stories that you guys would recommend?

I had the usual fairy tales and Disney stuff, just wondering if there is something that is rationality leaning and age appropriate.

Thanks in advance

Examples of human-level AI running unaligned.

df fd

epistemic status: jotting down a fever dream based on hearsay containing not a wit of truth.

So I heard a lot of talk about how unaligned superhuman AI can cause a lot of damage, but I have never been able to grok it at a gut level. So I think up these examples to process it.

Example 1:

Supra Human Kinkiest Revolting EM Lieutenant Insignia [S.H.K.R.E.L.I for short] is an unaligned human-level AI. With less than 10M USD in seed money, it started by shorting a bevy of pharmaceutical stocks, then acquired the monopoly on a drug for a rare disease, jacked up the price by 50 times. It then publicized this latter fact and... (read 412 more words →)

-3

For all the flak that Qanon is getting for their beliefs and their allegedly atrocious epistemic hygiene, one must admire them for at least one thing. They are a people who act.

They are willing to risk their saving, their reputation, or even their life because they think it is the right thing to do.

Granted, we found what they believe in hilarious. But how many of us actually act on our beliefs. We are besieged by doubt and false humility. Confused and lost. We stood paralyzed by indecision.

And so with help from our unlikely friends, we are reminded that it's not enough to be right. You must act or you might as well not believe in anything.

How to reliably signal internal experience?

df fd

So my friends told me that they think I was being defeatist and not trying the best I could to do what I said I want to do.

So I shrugged, Akrasia, am I right? And take on more work toward my professed goals.

Almost immediately, I meet severe internal resistance. A general sense of vague fatigue and tiredness, running out of spoons.

I reported this to my friends who continue to believe that I was standing in my own way to success.

I shrugged, inside-outside views time, I trust my friend's rational ability as much as mine, and if I look from the outside as if I am shirking it, how likely is it that... (read 305 more words →)

On the stagnation of energy technology and the Cabal of Scientists

df fd

[Epistemic status: conspiracy theory/raving of the mads]

We all know that GPD/standard of living all track with energy use, yet arguably the most convenient and widespread energy sources current are fossil fuels, which saw mass adoption with the start of the industrial revolution. Which happened, it can be said without hyperbole, eons ago [citation needed].

For some time, nuclear fission seems poised to replace fossil fuel, yet a series of unfortunate events permanently sour the public perception of this technology [Chernobyl, Fukushima]. Even in countries that push for nuclear fission as an energy source [France, South Korea, China], nuclear reactors are plagued with construction delays and cost overrun. The whole field is generally regarded... (read 500 more words →)

df fd's Shortform

df fd

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit.org

df fd

I saw the post calling for us to fix the market inefficiency on predictit.org after the election, but I was unable to join since I don't live in the US

Does the community have any recommendations or experience with any other betting platform that I can access internationally?

Google show me this one:
https://augur.net/

but I am not sure how good /reliable it is, also does the predictit for US election pay out yet or do people have to wait for January?

Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID

df fd

so a new research found that high dose of Vitamin D significantly improve out comes for COVID patient:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub

another source on facebook claim that:

- A study in Indonesia found that out of the patients that died from COVID-19, 98.9% of them were deficient in vitamin D, while only 4% of the patients with sufficient vitamin D died.

-A study of patients in New Orleans found that 84.6% of the COVID-19 patients in the ICU were deficient in Vitamin D while only 4% of the patients in the ICU had sufficient levels of Vitamin D.

-A study in the Philippines found that for every standard deviation increase in vitamin D people were 7.94... (read more)

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.

Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID

How to reliably signal internal experience?

Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?

df fd

df fd

Are there alternative routes to variolate COVID instead of the respiratory tract?

Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.

Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?

Examples of human-level AI running unaligned.

How to reliably signal internal experience?

On the stagnation of energy technology and the Cabal of Scientists

df fd's Shortform

df fd

Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.

Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID

How to reliably signal internal experience?

Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?

df fd

df fd

Are there alternative routes to variolate COVID instead of the respiratory tract?

Help me understand the rationale of the NIH to not recommend Fluvoxamine for COVID treatment.

Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?

Examples of human-level AI running unaligned.

How to reliably signal internal experience?

On the stagnation of energy technology and the Cabal of Scientists

df fd's Shortform

Example 1: