Gunnar_Zarncke's Comments

Poll: ask anything to an all-knowing demon edition

Constant vigilance when dealing with oracles!


Covid-19: My Current Model

I agree with all points regarding actual risks which match my own actions and the recommendations I give friends and family.

The only point where my probability estimates seems to noticeable differs from yours is with HCQ:

11. Best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective: 20%
I sold to 15%, given studies are actively being halted let’s knock that down to 10% now.

I think it is still relatively likely that there are combinations of HCQ with esp. Zinc that might work. I have updated toward them not working by now but would still give them at least 40%. Pure HCQ obviously not. I would offer a bet between your 10% and my 40% i.e. 1 to 3 that in the end a treatment with HCQ plus other active ingredients turns out to be effective.

Disclaimer: I follow ScottAdamsSays on Twitter and while he is also uncertain the potential upsides seem to be huge. He mentions use as a prophylactic for personell at risk like medical and police. He pushes further looking into it and there are many posts about other countries using combinations of HCQ with Zinc and others. You mention Zinc yourself. It seems plausible that Zinc is the active ingredient and HCQ enables its uptake. I seem to remember that CellBioGuy also wrote something along these lines.

Simplifying Board Games

This is also how we do it. Works well for e.g. Set or Zoff im Zoo.

Other alternatives:

  • if you have many (mostly adult) players the kid can play with one player and they let the kid execute the turn (e.g. place a card or execute pieces, throw dice and move etc.). The next level here is that the kid suggest moves and the adult supervises. This works best for traditional board games like Ludo, Malefiz. But also with Catan or Robo Ralley.
  • The games overall goes as usual and the kid plays one role - but errors are OK or are corrected if that makes sense. One traditional example in germany is Oma Skat. But it works with many games. Poker works, Bluff/Perudo is another good example. This changes the dynamic of the game for the other players because they have to accommodate a level of 'randomness'. Works best if winning is not essential for the kid and being able to make reasonable moves is rewarding enough.
  • Scaling the game by skill level. Our kids all wanted to join in Boggle and partly learned reading from it. The scoring was scaled down by allowing single letter words and any mis-spellings and scoring up to 3 less letters.
  • Games like Take it easy where everybody has their own board.

The result is that the kids reach a surprising level of proficiency very quickly. We routinely play Talisman, Risk (legacy!) with an 8-year-old.

Helping Lily Make Dinner

Other recipes my kids like to do (and have been doing since they are about 7):

  • Pancakes. Super easy: 1 egg, one small spoon of sugar, one very big spoon of flour (I don't know the US spoon sizes), as much milk as needed to make creamy. Multiply as needed.
  • Spicy noodle pan. Cook noodles in a pan. Boil until most of the water is gone (not that much in a pan to begin with anyway). Add lots of spices as they like. I can't tell you much about it because they invented it on their own and love it and do it every now and then. Note: Most of the spices in my home are not that spicy: Sweet and mild peppers, oregano, parsley, turmeric, rosemary, granular garlic, thyme. I think kummel is the one they like least.
  • Fried sausages with spices.

I'm fine with their dishes not having all the expected components (protein, carbohydrates, vegetable). It actually improves their intake of vegetables/fruits when that is the only thing available. Just over the course of the day all parts should be there.

Poll: ask anything to an all-knowing demon edition

Wait until a situation comes up where you are torn between two alternatives with potential high loss/gain. Then ask: "Among situations A and B should I choose A?"

COVID transmission by talking (& singing)

Relevant recent post with good summary of many recent findings even better than the SSC post about mask wearing:

Author Sui Huang is working for the NYC Institute for Systems Biology. I'm not affiliated or anything.

Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba?

Agree. This is definitely not intended as a replacement for proper care.

Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba?

Actually it looks more like 400$ - including shipping and taxes. Plus the risk that it will get there at all or not in time.

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Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba?

Depends on the level of emergency. I have a mild case of asthma and if I catch it at a time the medical system is overwhelmed I think I would choose this. Measuring blood oxygen levels is relatively easy: I already got a 20€ blood oxymeter. If it goes up it is enough oxygen?

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