Gunnar_Zarncke

Software engineering, parenting, cognition, meditation, other
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There is a beautiful way to simulate pilot wave behavior experimentally with "walking" oil drops.

Please provide a link to the data. I'd like to find out where specific other countries are on the list, e.g., Germany.

I don't know what assumptions the OP has, but don't forget the simulation argument: If you think we are heeded for super intelligence, then the following all become more likely:

  • You are in a simulation - maybe a weird one, maybe one that messes with your brain
  • Aliens intervene to prevent the creation of the ASI.
  • An ASI creates unbelievable effects on Earth.

That should let you update at least slightly in favor of the thing he claims being right. That's how betting and prediction markets work, right?

He doesn't have to. The fact that he probably bet people and won would give him quite some impressive bragging rights. And I guess some would still pay - people are mostly trustworthy.

That's not how I understand it literally. You don't have to put it to the side/into some savings account. You just have to accept the risk that if you have to pay out in the unlikely case, you have to go into debt.

Overall the temperature changes in the last 10000 years aren't that big compared to other events from the paleontological record. On the other hand, I also wouldn't like to live on Snowball Earth or during the Perm-Trias Event.

I like the breakdown on the German climate history page (the diagram is clickable, right below this section). Unfortunately, nothing like that seems to exist in English. This section has lots of references to the measurement methods.

No. This is how the ShortForm is supposed to work. The comments on the ShortForm "post" are like tweets. 

The fact that this was completely ignored is a little disappointing.

You seem to reply to your previous shortform post but these do not naturally show up below each other. If you want to thread them it is probably better to reply to yourself.

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