Gunnar_Zarncke

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Bakeoff

I was confused about who was who and had to look it up from the previous post. For reference: Anna is 4 and Lily is 6.

What is the VIX?

Thank you. That confirms my understanding of the ETF.

Anna and Oliver discuss Children and X-Risk

We will see all kinds of strange things going on at the very tails of the distribution (as illustrated by the Merkel + Harris examples). I think that should not inform our strategy as a community (except in so far as the preparedness for taking extreme measures when needed later).

What is the VIX?

That's why I added the quotes. But I'd like to learn more about how these products are implemented and what effects that has. Can you provide some further links?

What is the VIX?

There is an ETF that corresponds to the VIX:

https://www.justetf.com/de/etf-profile.html?isin=LU0832435464 

This means you can "buy" VIX if you think the market is underestimating the risk.

This was mentioned by Zvi here:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eWdh7pjMRKiF8Jzwt/hanson-and-mowshowitz-debate-covid-19-variolation

The sailor's wife

This would benefit if some context, questions, or references were offered.

Suspected reason that kids usually hate vegetables

I always preferred raw vegetables though not all of them. It seems to be common in my extended family to serve vegetables cut in slices or sticks for ready snacking. Many in my circle of friends do so too. Sometimes, more or less spicy dips are offered (which I don't like but which is easily ignored). My kids still ignore them mostly. Apples served the same way are gone quickly though.

[Fiction] Lena (MMAcevedo)

Content Warning: Subtle horror.

Covid-19: My Current Model

What surprised me most in this bet was how the significant number of studies that were started about HCQ - not only in the US - were basically all buried. None show any updates, not even negative results even long after their expected end dates. 

Covid-19: My Current Model

Zvi won.

Scott:

11. Will the scientific consensus end up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective?

UpToDate, the closest thing to a canonical medical recommendation site, currently says: "We suggest not using hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine in hospitalized patients given the lack of clear benefit and potential for toxicity. In June 2020, the US FDA revoked its emergency use authorization for these agents in patients with severe COVID-19, noting that the known and potential benefits no longer outweighed the known and potential risks". False.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid 

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