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jasoncrawford
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Founder, The Roots of Progress (rootsofprogress.org). Part-time tech consultant, Our World in Data. Former software engineering manager and tech startup founder.

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Explaining British Naval Dominance During the Age of Sail
jasoncrawford4mo40

In the Hornblower series of novels, at one point Captain Hornblower surrenders to the enemy during a naval battle. He is captured by the French, but later escapes. When he gets home, he's put on trial for surrendering. They finally acquit him when it is revealed that he had lost something like half (maybe two-thirds?) of his crew—basically massive casualties. But surrendering was considered guilty until proven innocent.

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Power Lies Trembling: a three-book review
jasoncrawford5mo20

This pairs well with Scott Alexander's Kolmogorov Complicity And The Parable Of Lightning

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford8mo31

Yes, they would not be made from mirror components!

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford8mo20

Synthetic cells aren't inherently dangerous if they're not mirror cells (and aren't dangerous pathogens of course).

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford8mo30

Failure to detect other life in the universe is only really evidence against advanced intelligent civilizations, I think. The universe could easily be absolutely teeming with bacterial life.

Re “take steps to stop it”, I was replying to @Purplehermann

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford9mo30

The asymmetric advantage of bacteria is that they can invade your body but not vice versa.

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford9mo50

I think until recently, most scientists assumed that mirror bacteria would (a) not be able to replicate well in an environment without many matching-chirality nutrients, and/or (b) would be caught by the immune system. It's only recently that a group of scientists got more concerned and did a more in-depth investigation of the question.

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford9mo100

Yes, antibodies could adapt to mirror pathogens. The concern is that the system which generates antibodies wouldn't be strongly triggered. The Science article says: “For example, experiments show that mirror proteins resist cleavage into peptides for antigen presentation and do not reliably trigger important adaptive immune responses such as the production of antibodies (11, 12).”

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Biological risk from the mirror world
jasoncrawford9mo2314

Given that mirror life hasn't arisen independently on Earth in ~4B years, I don't think we need to take any steps to stop it from doing so in the future. Either abiogenesis is extremely rare, or when new life does arise naturally, it is so weak that it is outcompeted by more evolved life.

I agree that this is a risk from any extraterrestrial life we might encounter.

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Progress links digest, 2023-12-29: Rayleigh's oil drop experiment and more
jasoncrawford1y30

I appreciate that! Would like to get back to them at some point…

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8jasoncrawford's Shortform
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Progress Studies
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26Chesterton's Missing Fence
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11The Roots of Progress wants your stories about the AI frontier
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11Progress links and short notes, 2025-05-31: RPI fellowship deadline tomorrow, Edge Esmeralda next week, and more
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20Where is the YIMBY movement for healthcare?
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12Announcing Progress Conference 2025
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28How much does it cost to back up solar with batteries?
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8Progress links and short notes, 2025-03-18
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8Progress links and short notes, 2025-03-10
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8Progress links and short notes, 2025-03-03
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8Progress links and short notes, 2025-02-17
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