Senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy. Recently completed a doctorate in philosophy at the University of Oxford. Opinions my own.
Oops! You're right, this isn't the right formulation of the relevant principle. Will edit to reflect.
I really like this post. It's a crisp, useful insight, made via a memorable concrete example (plus a few others), in a very efficient way. And it has stayed with me.
Thanks for these thoughtful comments, Paul.
Yeah, as I say, I think "neither innocent nor guilty" is least misleading -- but I find "innocent" an evocative frame. Do you have suggestions for an alternative to "selfish"?
Re: "0.00002 would be one in five hundred thousand, but with the percent sign it's one in fifty million." -- thanks, edited.
Re: volatility -- thanks, that sounds right to me, and like a potentially useful dynamic to have in mind.