Yeah I think

And! Once you know whether your mirror is foggy, there's basically nothing left to learn about the temperature by observing your skin (and vice versa).

is supposed to be scoped under the "Suppose that" from the beginning of the paragraph

I believe there's been a local increase in bugs since switching to Vercel. It would be shocking if that weren't true! It was a major website port. That said, I think the general bugginess of the website has been trending down over time, and this local increase is only equivalent to 1-3 years of regression.

I agree about the long delay in frontpaging, so it's been one of my side projects to get that time down. I've trained a logistic classifier to predict the eventual destination of a post, and currently mods are seeing those predictions when they process posts. If the predictions perform well for awhile, we'll have them go live and review the classification retrospectively

It sounds like you're talking about the standards for frontpaging rather than quick take vs post?

What did you update your model to?

Noted. I'm not planning to revert the change, but I will try and track this cost.

FWIW, I think you might suffer less from this than you think. I believe every quick take I removed from the frontpage today was made after a post on the topic had been made, and, in most or all cases, after the post had been officially moved to personal.

(EDIT: or, perhaps, the conclusion I should draw from my previous paragraph is that adding this feature won't help you that much, because the distribution of tag filters among the user base will mean few enough people see and upvote the quick take that it won't appear on the frontpage for you)

It would be good to have this feature, but we don't yet

There has been a rash of highly upvoted quick takes recently that don't meet our frontpage guidelines. They are often timely, perhaps because they're political, pitching something to the reader or inside baseball. These are all fine or even good things to write on LessWrong! But I (and the rest of the moderation team I talked to) still want to keep the content on the frontpage of LessWrong timeless.

Unlike posts, we don't go through each quick take and manually assign it to be frontpage or personal (and posts are treated as personal until they're actively frontpaged). Quick takes are instead treated more like frontpage by default, but we do have the ability to move them to personal.

I'm writing this because of a bunch of us are planning to be more active about moving quick takes off the frontpage. I also might link to this comment to clarify what's happening in cases of confusion.

On your example: confidence intervals on ranking seem like quite a strange beast; it seems like you would get it by something like interval arithmetic on your confidence intervals for a scalar rating.

I think retiring is hard for lots of people cos they don't really change their minds about this