knite

In the early months of the pandemic, San Francisco posted case and death counts on a daily basis. It was sometimes messy with significant corrections, but the city did the best they could (or at least better than most) to keep the public informed. Around half a year ago, they...

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions I privately recorded my own predictions on these questions. I felt uncomfortable posting these publicly at the time. I can't fix that, but I can post my answers now and do better next time. Score: 3.34 Edit: Per...

I'm an infovore. The failure mode for an infovore is spending too much time reading and not enough time doing. I was bit especially hard by this a few days ago - I hadn't caught up on LW posts in while and had 100+ in my RSS reader. I wanted...

Assumption: COVID immunity lasts a long time, because that's how diseases work, and this is the case for 95+% of people who get COVID or a COVID vaccine. 20% of the United States has had COVID (13-30% per https://covid19-projections.com/) and presumed immune. Even if we conservatively take the official case...

Previously on LW * https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JmqBtCCnMZmpXP2bE/what-are-good-election-betting-opportunities?commentId=NFdSk5H39omYXPjBS,- * https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bSKWSPM927oZZqN7f/predictit-presidential-market-is-increasingly-wrong PredictIt is structurally inefficient * A maximum of 5,000 people in one market * A maximum of $850 in betting per person per contract (not per market) * A substantial house cut of 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. Because of the...

What is the current consensus on supplements to take or skip? I thought zinc lozenges and high dose Vitamin C were clear winners, but I am now finding conflicting information on how Vitamin C may impact interferon. There's also the HCQ issue, where it's been so politicized that it's rather...

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance The FDA lists two dozen tests with different sensitivity and specificity characteristics, different sample sizes, and different 95% CIs. Some of these tests are clear losers (lower bound on sensitivity CI ~75%!), but are there any clear winners?