Wiki Contributions


Paths Forward: Scaling the Sharing of Information and Solutions

Obvious next step: if there's a lot of low hanging fruit like this, let's find it? Have you considered using your LW/Twitter/blog to publicly solicit obvious, simple, and high leverage solutions to other big problems?

Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child

In dath ilan, it is virtuous to write more stories about dath ilan.

Obesity Epidemic Explained in 0.9 Subway Cookies

I expect agave to be generally preferred over table sugar and HFCS due to having a significantly lower glycemic index. I'm unfamiliar with Karo.

Covid 8/12: The Worst Is Over

Something I've been wondering for a while: are organizations/journalists/individuals filing FOIA requests to get emails and other relevant documents about how the CDC and FDA made their COVID decisions?

Who wants to run a B2B SaaS startup?

Potentially interested!

Big picture, if your friend wants a different blend of upside-to-work, perhaps they should consider hiring someone to work 15-20 hrs/wk, freeing them up to do <5 hrs/wk of supervision?

Why Prefetch Is Broken

This post is a bit hard to parse - please consider replacing "a.test" with something like "" or "" to clarify whether the issue is per-page caching or per-domain caching.

D&D.Sci April 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset

I posted my answer a bit late but this was a ton of fun!

D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan

Only four creatures have been known to do significant damage, implying that they've probably sunk some ships:

  • demon whales
  • nessie
  • merpeople
  • crabs

All attacks by these creature appear to be roughly the same relative frequency on a yearly basis.

Demon whales look the scariest, let's max out at 20x oars: -20% for 20 gp.

Nessie has probably taken out a few ships but she rarely does more than 90%. Definitely worth a cannon: -10% for 10 gp.

Merpeople and crabs both have weird long tails. Let's skip the merpeople entirely for 45 gp.

What's sinking all these ships? Is it...murdercrabs? Let's arm our carpenters, -50% for 20 gp.

We've never seen any of the other creatures come close to sinking a ship, so we won't worry about sharks with lasers on their heads or mega-harpies. I have 5 gp remaining, which I keep as a fee for my services. Alternately, I'd consider trimming off 5 oars for a second cannon, but I'm not sure it's worth it.

Trust status sigmoidally

Two thoughts.

First, it wasn't immediately clear that you meant within a range of [-1, 1], perhaps adding that to the graphic would help?

Second, this sounds like it generalizes as "trust your own opinion on any topic sigmoidally, scaling with your personal knowledge of it" - in other words, actively notice and reject your initial bias, until you have enough background to be truly informed, at which point you should trust your own judgment.

Covid 3/4: Declare Victory and Leave Home

If you're willing to write a data extraction script, and John Hopkins continues updating from a new source (that doesn't otherwise publish raw data), you can find the numbers on the embedded sub-pages:

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