Previously on LW
PredictIt is structurally inefficient
- A maximum of 5,000 people in one market
- A maximum of $850 in betting per person per contract (not per market)
- A substantial house cut of 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals.
Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all instances of mis-priced markets.
Free money? Free money!
Have you ever wished you could bet on past events? Well, today is your lucky day!
Q: Who won the Texas Democratic primary? A: Joe Biden
Q: Who won the presidency? A: Joe Biden
As I write this, you can purchase $1 for the price of $.85, in the Will the 2020 TX Democratic primary winner win the presidency? market.
Are there other markets like this? Yes!
- Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15? Not Mike Pompeo @ 85 cents.
- Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? Not Bill Barr @ 88 cents.
- Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election? Not Republican @ 85 cents.
- Will the 2020 SC Democratic primary winner win the presidency? Yes @ 86 cents.
Sometimes, you can find a $20 bill on the ground and pick it up.