I think the prior for aliens having visited Earth should be lower, since it a priori it seems unlikely to me that aliens would interact with Earth but not to an extent which makes it clear to us that they have. My intuition is that its probably rare to get to other planets with sapient life before building a superintelligence (which would almost certainly be obvious to us if it did arrive) and even if you do manage to go to other planets with sapient life, I don't think aliens would not try to contract us if they're anything like humans.

Copied from a reply on lukehmiles' short form:

The hypothesis I would immediately come up with is that less traditionally masculine AMAB people are inclined towards less physical pursuits.

If it is related to IQ, however, this is less plausible, although perhaps some sort of selection effect is happening here.

The hypothesis I would immediately come up with is that less traditionally masculine AMAB people are inclined towards less physical pursuits.

This feels like Scott Alexander could've written something about, and it has the same revelatory quality.

I assume OP thought that there was some specific place in the training data the LLM was replicating.

I think that requires labeled data.

It doesn't and the developers don't label the data. The LLM learns that these categories exist during training because they can and it helps minimize the loss function.

I don't think there are necessarily any specific examples in the training data. LLMs can generalize to text outside of the training distribution.

Another problem is, why should we expect to be in the particles rather than just in the wave function directly? Both MWI and Bohmian mechanics have the wave function, after all. It might be the case that there are particles bouncing around but the branch of the wave function we live in has no relation to the positions of the particles.

Have you tried just copying and pasting an alignment research paper (or other materials) into a base model (or sufficiently base model-like modes of a model) to see how it completes it?

I'm talking for commenters