Nick_Tarleton

Comments

"No evidence" as a Valley of Bad Rationality

Upvoted, but weighing in the other direction: Average Joe also updates on things he shouldn't, like marketing. I expect the doctor to have moved forward some in resistance to BS (though in practice, not as much as he would if he were consistently applying his education).

"No evidence" as a Valley of Bad Rationality

And the correct reaction (and the study's own conclusion) is that the sample is too small to say much of anything.

(Also, the "something else" was "conventional treatment", not another antiviral.)

Why Telling People They Don't Need Masks Backfired

I find the 'backfired through distrust'/'damaged their own credibility' claim plausible, it agrees with my prejudices, and I think I see evidence of similar things happening elsewhere; but the article doesn't contain evidence that it happened in this case, and even though it's a priori likely and worth pointing out, the claim that it did happen should come with evidence. (This is a nitpick, but I think it's an important nitpick in the spirit of sharing likelihood ratios, not posterior beliefs.)

Rationalists, Post-Rationalists, And Rationalist-Adjacents

if there's a domain where the model gives two incompatible predictions, then as soon as that's noticed it has to be rectified in some way.

What do you mean by "rectified", and are you sure you mean "rectified" rather than, say, "flagged for attention"? (A bounded approximate Bayesian approaches consistency by trying to be accurate, but doesn't try to be consistent. I believe 'immediately update your model somehow when you notice an inconsistency' is a bad policy for a human [and part of a weak-man version of rationalism that harms people who try to follow it], and I don't think this belief is opposed to "rationalism", which should only require not indefinitely tolerating inconsistency.)

How long does SARS-CoV-2 survive on copper surfaces

On the other hand:

We found that viable virus could be detected... up to 4 hours on copper...

How long does SARS-CoV-2 survive on copper surfaces

Here's a study using a different coronavirus.

Brasses containing at least 70% copper were very effective at inactivating HuCoV-229E (Fig. 2A), and the rate of inactivation was directly proportional to the percentage of copper. Approximately 103 PFU in a simulated wet-droplet contamination (20 µl per cm2) was inactivated in less than 60 min. Analysis of the early contact time points revealed a lag in inactivation of approximately 10 min followed by very rapid loss of infectivity (Fig. 2B).

How long does SARS-CoV-2 survive on copper surfaces

That paper only looks at bacteria and does not knowably carry over to viruses.

Duncan Sabien: "In Defense of Punch Bug"

I don't see you as having come close to establishing, beyond the (I claim weak) argument from the single-word framing, that the actual amount or parts of structure or framing that Dragon Army has inherited from militaries are optimized for attacking the outgroup to a degree that makes worrying justified.

"Taking AI Risk Seriously" (thoughts by Critch)

Doesn't work in incognito mode either. There appears to be an issue with lesserwrong.com when accessed over HTTPS — over HTTP it sends back a reasonable-looking 301 redirect, but on port 443 the TCP connection just hangs.

"Taking AI Risk Seriously" (thoughts by Critch)

Similar meta: none of the links to lesserwrong.com currently work due to, well, being to lesserwrong.com rather than lesswrong.com.

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