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Thanks a lot for the correction! Edited my comment.

EDIT: as Ryan helpfully points out in the replies, the patent I refer to is actually about OpenAI's earlier work, and thus shouldn't be much of an update for anything. 

Note that OpenAI has applied for a patent which, to my understanding, is about using a video generation model as a backbone for an agent that can interact with a computer. They describe theirtraining pipeline as something roughly like:

  1. Start with unlabeled video data ("receiving labeled digital video data;")
  2. Train an ML model to label the video data ("training a first machine learning model including an inverse dynamics model (IDM) using the labeled digital video data")
  3. Then, train a new model to generate video ("further training the first machine learning model or a second machine learning model using the pseudo-labeled digital video data to generate at least one additional pseudo-label for the unlabeled digital video.")
  4. Then, train the video generation model to predict actions (keyboard/mouse clicks) a user is taking from video of a PC ("2. The method of claim 1, wherein the IDM or machine learning model is trained to generate one or more predicted actions to be performed via a user interface without human intervention. [...] 4. The method of claim 2, wherein the one or more predicted actions generated include at least one of a key press, a button press, a touchscreen input, a joystick movement, a mouse click, a scroll wheel movement, or a mouse movement.')

Now you have a model which can predict what actions to take given a recording of a computer monitor!

They even specifically mention the keyboard overlay setup you describe:

11. The method of claim 1, wherein the labeled digital video data comprises timestep data paired with user interface action data.

If you haven't seen the patent (to my knowledge, basically no-one on LessWrong has?) then you get lots of Bayes points!

I might be reading too much into the patent, but it seems to me that Sora is exactly the first half of the training setup described in that patent. So I would assume they'll soon start working on the second half, which is the actual agent (if they haven't already).

I think Sora is probably (the precursor of) a foundation model for an agent with a world model. I actually noticed this patent a few hours before Sora was announced, and I had the rough thought of "Oh wow, if OpenAI releases a video model, I'd probably think that agents were coming soon". And a few hours later Sora comes out.

Interestingly, the patent contains information about hardware for running agents. I'm not sure how patents work and how much this actually implies OpenAI wants to build hardware, but sure is interesting that this is in there:

13. A system comprising:

at least one memory storing instructions;

at least one processor configured to execute the instructions to perform operations for training a machine learning model to perform automated actions,

Yann LeCun, on the other hand, shows us that when he says ‘open source everything’ he is at least consistent?

Yann LeCun: Only a small number of book authors make significant money from book sales. This seems to suggest that most books should be freely available for download. The lost revenue for authors would be small, and the benefits to society large by comparison.

That’s right. He thinks that if you write a book that isn’t a huge hit that means we should make it available for free and give you nothing.

I think this representation of LeCun's beliefs is not very accurate. He clarified his (possibly partly revised) take in multiple follow up tweets posted Jan 1 and Jan 2

The clarified take (paraphrased by me) is something more like "For a person that expects not to make much from sales, the extra exposure from making it free can make up for the lack of sales later on" and "the social benefits of making information freely available sometimes outweigh the personal costs of not making a few hundred/thousand bucks off of that information". 

I often accidentally mix you up with the Trevor from Open Phil! More differentiation would be great, especially in the case where people share the same first name.

Agreed. AGI labs should probably look into buying back their shares from employees to fix this retroactively.

I agree with the broader claim that as AGI approaches, governments are likely to intervene drastically to deal with national security threats.

However, I'm not so sure about the "therefore a global arms race will start" claim. I think it's pretty plausible that if the US or UK are the first to approach AGI, that they would come to their senses and institute a global pause instead of spearheading an arms race. Although maybe that's wishful thinking on my part.

I expect some people in the government to be like "wait, if a global arms race starts this is likely to end in catastrophe" and advocate for a pause instead. I think the US would be pretty happy with an enforcable pause if this meant it got to maintain a slight lead. I'd hope that (pause+slight lead) would be much more inticing than (race+large lead) given the catastrophic risk associated with the latter.

I think that in general, there aren't many examples of large portions of a large company suddenly switching what they're working on (on a timescale of days/weeks), and this seems pretty hard to pull off without very strong forces in play.

I guess some examples are how many companies had to shift their operations around a lot at the start of COVID, but this was very overdetermined, as the alternative was losing a lot of their profits. 

For AGI labs, if given a situation where they're uncertain if they should pause, it's less clear that they could rally large parts of their workforce to suddenly work on safety. I think planning for this scenario seems very good, including possibly having every employee not just have their normal role but also a "pause role", that is, a research project/team that they expect to join in case of a pause.

However, detailed planning for a pause is probably pretty hard, as the types of work you want to shift people to probably changes depending on what caused the pause.

Exciting! Maybe a good way to filter for models taking too many hints is to obfuscate the information about how to escape such that the model needs to either do multi-step reasoning, or an actual multi-step process, to actually get that information.

For multi-step-reasoning, possibly one could encode the escape password such that the model needs to do CoT to retrieve the original one.

For a multi-step process, one could put the model in a text-based-adventure setup for instance, and put the escape password in an inaccessible place and see if the model tries to retrieve it. Maybe have the model think it's embodied in the real world, and see if it attempts to find a sticky note with the password written on it that's hidden in a desk drawer.

Ideally, the setup would be such that there are very few hints for the model to do the misaligned things, kind of like the work Appolo has done.

You're right! Corrected, thanks :)

I'm not sure what you're referring to. The "three times the compute for GPT-4" claim places their compute at 6.7e17, which is lower than the estimates from the other two methods.

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