Sequences

Inconsistent Values and Extrapolation

Comments

Well, you wrote that "concept origin: planecrash". Which of the concepts you mentioned originated from planecrash?

Measuring charisma has been done by psychologists using the Conger-Kanungo scale, and the original paper analysis the metric using a factor analysis.

I didn't expect a response! It's probably too late now, which is a shame—there's not that much information on polyphasic sleep. But thanks for answering anyway!

I'd appreciate a sentence or two about the outcome of this.

Man, I keep preventing myself from saying "parts of e/acc are at least somewhat fascist", because that's not a very useful thing to say in discourse, and prevents Thermodynamic-God-ism (or e/acc in general) from developing into a more sophisticated & fleshed out system of thought. I think this kind of post works if it's phrased in a way that encourages more cooperation in the future (with the risk of this running a "cooperate with defection-rock" situation), but it only works if it encourages such cooperation.

I prefer the term "fascist" to "national socialist" because nazism was a really specific thing, bound to German conceptions of race at the time. Although—"fascism" is also really associated with Italy at that specific time.

The biggest advantage Claude has over GPT is a more concise writing style. Claude gets to the point quickly and it usually gets it right. Even though writing isn’t the main task I use LLMs for, this advantage is massive. All of GPT’s extra fluff sentences add up to a frustrating experience even when you’re just coding.

 

Adding the custom prompt "Please keep your response brief unless asked to elaborate." reduces GPT-4s responses down to an acceptable level.

Ah, but there is some non-empirical cognitive work done here that is really relevant, namely the choice of what equivalence class to put Bernie Bankman into when trying to forecast. In the dialogue, the empiricists use the equivalence class of Bankman in the past, while you propose using the equivalence class of all people that have offered apparently-very-lucrative deals.

And this choice is in general non-trivial, and requires abstractions and/or theory. (And the dismissal of this choice as trivial is my biggest gripe with folk-frequentism—what counts as a sample, and what doesn't?)

This suggests a (self-)experiment: Drink only filtered water/distilled water with selectively added minerals vs. tap water. Problem is if the effects are really small or really long-term, so we'd need samples that are several weeks long.

Is tap water expected to contain fewer microplastics than bottled water? In this case there's surely some natural experiment[1] that could shed light on whether microplastics are harmful.


  1. Although things like natural disasters which limit tap water access, surges in bottled water prices or tap water contaminations don't count. Maybe the plastic supply chain experienced a disruption due to some natural disaster at some point, similar to GPU prices soaring when there was a flood in Thailand? There was a (small) sudden decline in price for HDPE/LDPE/LLDPE in early 2018, maybe that works. Although it seems like PET didn't have a similar price drop. ↩︎

Bet (1) resolved in Connor's favor, right?

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