Yo WTF Claude 3.5 Sonnet can reproduce the BIG-BENCH canary string if you ask for it. (This might only work sometimes, it worked ⅔ times for me). Apparently Anthropic can't be bothered to remove documents with the canary string from their training data.

So, ah, RIP to all those who were hoping that text with the canary string would never be seen by any advanced language models.

GPT-4o can not reproduce the string, and instead just makes up plausible candidates. You love to see it.

Me: What is a canary string?

Claude 3.5 Sonnet: A canary string is a unique, randomly generated sequence of characters that is inserted into sensitive data or systems as a security measure. Its main purpose is to detect unauthorized access or data breaches.

Here's how it works:

A unique string is created and embedded in data or systems. This string is kept secret and monitored. If the canary string appears anywhere it shouldn't (like on the dark web or in leaked data dumps), it indicates that a breach has occurred.

Canary strings are named after the historical practice of using canaries in coal mines to detect dangerous gases. Just as a distressed or dead canary would alert miners to danger, the appearance of

How Often Does Taking Away Options Help?

In some game-theoretic setups, taking options away from a player improves their situation. I ran a Monte-Carlo simulation to figure out how often that is the case, generating random normal form games with payoffs in $[0,1]$, removing a random option from the first player, and comparing the Nash equilibria found via vertex enumeration of the best response polytope (using nashpy)—the Lemke-Howson algorithm was giving me duplicate results.

Code here, largely written by Claude 3.5 Sonnet.

I have been hoping to get more concrete information on the firing of Sam Altman, but I've remembered that I still don't have a clear story about the 2021 exit of OpenAI employees to Anthropic, so I've reduced my hope on this.

Hang on—is the 2022 review happening this year?

I have the impression that very smart people have many more ideas than they can write down & explain adequately, and that these kinds of ideas especially get developed in & forgotten after conversations among smart people.

For some people, their comparative advantage could be to sit in conversations between smart people, record & take notes, and summarize the outcome of the conversations (or, alternatively, just interview smart people, let them explain their ideas & ask for feedback, and then write them down so that others understand them).

The current state of the art for salary negotiations is really bad. It rewards disagreeableness, stubornness and social skills, and is just so unelegant.

Here's a better way of doing salary negotiation:

Procedure via a two-sided sealed-bid auction, splitting the difference in bids^[1]:

• Normal interviewing happens.
• Job-seeker decides on their minimum acceptable rate $r_{\text{min}}$.
• Employee-seeker decides on the maximum acceptable payment $r_{\text{max}}$.
• Both reveal $r_{\text{min}}$ and $r_{\text{max}}$, either first through hashsums of the numbers (with random text appended) and then the cleartext, or simply at the same time.
  • If $r_{\text{max}}\ge r_{\text{min}}$, then the rate is $\frac{r_{\text{max}}+r_{\text{min}}}{2}$ (i.e. the mean of the two bids).
  • If $r_{\text{max}}<r_{\text{min}}$, then no agreement takes place and both parties fall back to their BATNAs.

$r_{\text{min}}$ and $r_{\text{max}}$ do not need to be positive! It might be that the potential employee likes the project so much that they set $r_{\text{min}}$ to zero or even negative—an exceptionally great idea might be worth paying for. Or $r_{\text{max}}$ might be negative, in that case one party would be selling something.

I'm not aware of anyone proposing this kind of auction for salary negotiation in particular, Claude 3.5 Sonnet states that it's similar to Vickrey auctions, ... (read more)

Consider the problem of being automated away in a period of human history with explosive growth, and having to subsist on one's capital. Property rights are respected, but there is no financial assistance by governments or AGI corporations.

How much wealth does one need to have to survive, ideally indefinitely?

Finding: If you lose your job at the start of the singularity, with monthly spending of $1k, you need ~$71k in total of capital. This number doesn't look very sensitive to losing one's job slightly later.

At the moment, the world economy is growing at a pace that leads to doublings in GWP every 20 years, steadily since ~1960. Explosive growth might instead be hyperbolic (continuing the trend we've seen seen through human history so far), with the economy first doubling in 20, then in 10, then in 5, then 2.5, then 15 months, and so on. I'll assume that the smallest time for doublings is 1 year.

    initial_doubling_time=20
    final_doubling_time=1
    initial_growth_rate=2^(1/(initial_doubling_time*12))
    final_growth_rate=2^(1/(final_doubling_time*12))

    function generate_growth_rate_array(months::Int)
        growth_rate_array = zeros(Float64, years)
        growth_rate_

Posts I Will Not Finish On Time

Inspired by a post by Self-Embedded Agent, I've decided to vomit out a couple of short post blurbs. These necessarily don't contain all the necessary caveats or implications or details, but whatever.

Scope Neglect Is Not A Cognitive Bias (or, Contra Desvouges and Kahnemann and Yudkowsky and Soares and Alexander on Oily Birds)

Scope neglect is not a cognitive bias like confirmation bias. I can want there to be ≥80 birds saved, but be indifferent about larger numbers: this does not violate the von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms (n... (read more)

It looks like longtermism and concern over AI risk are going to become topics of the culture war like everything else (c.f. Timnit Gebru on longtermism), with the "left" (especially the "social/woke left") developing an antipathy against longtermism & concerns against x-risk through AGI.

That's a shame, because longtermism & concerns about AGI x-risk per se have ~0 conflict with "social/woke left" values, and potentially a lot of overlap (from moral trade & compute governance (regulating big companies! Preventing the CO₂ released by large models... (read more)

Idea: Upvote-only shortforms posts. The karma isn't counted on the user karma score, but the submission also can't be downvoted, which encourages more wild and possibly wrong speculations. Having a shortform post be visibly upvote-only would also be a nice signal ("Don't take this one too seriously"). Why have upvotes at all? Because even if the votes don't go into the site karma, people still care about number go up, just as they care about hearts on twitter.

Upsides: This makes the shortform posts in question more like twitter. Downsides: This makes the shortform posts in question more like twitter.

Consider proposing the most naïve formula for logical correlation^[1].

Let a program $p$ be a tuple of code for a Turing machine, intermediate tape states after each command execution, and output. All in binary.

That is $p=(c,t,o)$, with $c\in \{0,1{\}}^{+},t\in (\{0,1{\}}^{+}{)}^{+}$ and $o\in \{0,1{\}}^{+}$.

Let $l=|t|$ be the number of steps that $p$ takes to halt.

Then a formula for the logical correlation $合$^[2] of two halting programs $p_1=(c_1,t_1,o_1),p_2=(c_2,t_2,o_2)$, a tape-state discount factor $\gamma$^[3], and a string-distance metric $d:\{0,1{\}}^{+}\times \{0,1{\}}^{+}\to N$ could be

$$合(p_1,p_2,\gamma )=d(o_1,o_2)-\frac{1}{2+{\sum }_{k=0}^{min(l_1,l_2)}{\gamma }^k\cdot }$$... (read more)

Just checked who from the authors of the Weak-To-Strong Generalization paper is still at OpenAI:

• Collin Burns
• Jan Hendrick Kirchner
• Leo Gao
• Bowen Baker
• Yining Chen
• Adrian Ecoffet
• Manas Joglekar
• Jeff Wu

Gone are:

• Ilya Sutskever
• Pavel Izmailov^[1]
• Jan Leike
• Leopold Aschenbrenner

I've been wondering a lot about the types of algorithms that neural networks tend to learn, and the deep disagreements people have on this. I've been considering trying to do a literature review on this, but that's kind of badly scoped.

One thing one could do is to investigate the ability and/or tendency of neural networks to learn search. Search is probably really important for agency, and if neural networks can/can't learn search well, that would tell us about the ability of neural networks to learn agent-like functions.

The output of this experiment would... (read more)

Pareto improvement: Instead of letting students write bachelors/masters theses that are basically just literature reviews, let them rewrite the respective Wikipedia articles instead (and then the supervisor checks the article).

Advantage: Instead of (in expectation) 10 people benefitting from the literature review, now a couple of hundred (for obscure pages) or potentially tens of thousands (for mildly popular pages) of people benefit.

I would like to have a way to reward people for updating their existing articles (and be myself rewarded for updating my posts), since I believe that that's important (and neglected!) work, but afaik there's no way to make the LW interface show me new updates or let me vote on them.

The Variety-Uninterested Can Buy Schelling-Products

Having many different products in the same category, such as many different kinds of clothes or cars or houses, is probably very expensive.

Some of us might not care enough about variety of products in a certain category to pay the extra cost of variety, and may even resent the variety-interested for imposing that cost.

But the variety-uninterested can try to recover some of the gains from eschewing variety by all buying the same product in some category. Often, this will mean buying the cheapest acceptable... (read more)

It's surprising that soviet style centrally planned economy took more than 70 years to collapse. I think most libertarians would have predicted it to collapse way earlier.

Trying to Disambiguate Different Questions about Whether Humans are Turing Machines

I often hear the sentiment that humans are Turing machines, and that this sets humans apart from other pieces of matter.

I've always found those statements a bit strange and confusing, so it seems worth it to tease apart what they could mean.

The question "is a human a Turing machine" is probably meant to convey "can a human mind execute arbitrary programs?", that is "are the languages the human brain emit at least recursively enumerable?", as opposed to e.g. context-free lan... (read more)

epistemic status: butterfly idea, I really should learn more topology and vector calculus, potentially very fruitful line of research in theoretical ethics

Consider an agent with inconsistent preferences. How can we represent their inconsistent preferences so that they can be turned into consistent variants of themselves, while minimally changing their structure?

One way to approach this is to represent the preferences as a directed graph. In this case, we have for example an intransitive preference

We can make this preference consistent by deleting an edge, ... (read more)