Evaluation: Correct. AI can perhaps pass the reading comprehension task. But not any 4 of the tasks.

 

"Reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]"

Also Opus 4.5 can probably pass this one. (10,000 lines of code is not a lot in some languages)

; this discussion is more apocalyptic, predicting global microprocessor production falling to "early 2000s levels for perhaps 15 years

This was from 2022. Since then, the US has made significant efforts in de-risking the semiconductor supply chain. The Arizona fab appears to be ahead of schedule and of course is already operational. Additionally rare earth chokepoints have been identified and begun to be addressed. I would lean towards it being less of a slow down in advanced chip manufacturing than expected in the 2022 report. 

These are private roads right?

Populism is too strong for job categories to be wiped out in the U.S. without consumer adoption first. I’d check how it’s going in other countries.

A slow takeoff will result in incredibly suboptimal outcomes. 

I think increasingly, it’s looking like democratic country politicians will not respond to automation in a remotely intelligent way.

 I see democrat politicians and some republicans too call for full bans on self driving trucks. Meanwhile authoritarian countries like China and Russia are testing these trucks. The U.S. still holds a technological edge but for how long? A slow takeoff will probably lead to democratic countries strangled by rent seekers and other similar parasites.

I feel like this is quite underrated. A lot of solutions to a fast takeoff in my estimate would be hijacked by rent seekers to create a horrible world in a slow takeoff.

May be related: OTC melatonin dosage is way above what is recommended. It's easy to find 10mg when the recommended dose is more like 0.3 mg.

why other alignment people don't seem to think we'll get catastrophic job losses before AGI

Because AI before AGI will have similar effects as previous productivity enhancing technologies.

AGI misalignment is less likely to look like us being gray goo'd and more like the misalignment of the tiktok recommendation algorithm (but possibly less since that one doesn't understand human values at all). 

Small note: negative consensus seems to be concentrated in the Anglosphere