Feels like Test Time Training will eat the world. People thought it was search, but make alphafold 100x efficient (3 days to 40 minutes) and you probably have something superhuman.

This part seems to just be to not allow an LLM translation to get the problem slightly wrong and mess up the score as a result.

It would be a shame for your once a year attempt to have even a 2% chance of being messed up by an LLM hallucination.

https://x.com/wtgowers/status/1816839783034843630

It wasn't told what to prove. To get round that difficulty, it generated several hundred guesses (many of which were equivalent to each other). Then it ruled out lots of them by finding simple counterexamples, before ending up with a small shortlist that it then worked on.

That comment doesn’t seem to be correct.

I think a lot of it is simply just eating away at the margins of companies and product that might become larger in the future. Even if they are not direct competitors, it's still tech investment money going away from their VR bets into AI.  Also big companies fully controlling important tech products has proven to be a nuisance to Meta in the past.

I'm guessing many people assumed an IMO solver would be AGI. However this is actually a narrow math solver. But it's probably useful on the road to AGI nonetheless.

I predict the move to Texas will be largely fake and just whining to get CA politicians to listen to his policy suggestions. They will still have a large office in California. 

This is a reconstruction of Roman GDP per capita. Source of image.  There is ~200 years of quick growth followed by a long and slow decline.  I think it's clear to me we could be in the year 26, extrapolating past trends without looking at the 2nd derivative. I can't find a source of fertility rates, but child mortality rates were much higher then so the bar for fertility rates was also much higher. 

For posterity, I'll add Japan's gdp per capita. Similar graphs exist for many of the other countries I mention. I think this is a better and more direct example anyways. 

It is plausible that technological and political progress might get it to fulfilling all Sustainable Development Goal

This seems highly implausible to me. The technological progress and economic growth trend is really an illusion. We are already slowly trending in the wrong direction. The U.S. is an exception and all countries are headed towards Japan or Europe. Many of those countries have declined since 2010 or so.

If you plotted trends from the Roman Empire but ignored the same population decline/institutional decay from them we should have reached technological goals a long time ago.

It’s always hard to say whether this is an alignment or capabilities problem. It’s also too contrived too offer much signal.

The overall vibe is these LLMs grasp most of our values pretty well. They give common sense answers to most moral questions. You can see them grasp Chinese values pretty well too, so n=2. It’s hard to characterize this as mostly “terrible”.

This shouldn’t be too surprising in retrospect. Our values are simple for LLMs to learn. It’s not going to disassemble cows for atoms to end racism.There are edge cases where it’s too woke, but these got quickly fixed. I don’t expect them to ever pop up again.

much of what they say on matters of human values is actually pretty terrible

Really? I’m not aware of any examples of this.