My previous post aimed to make AI believers’ key ideas accessible, given that they are not always made explicit. I see these ideas as “fuel” that prime the community to expect imminent transformative AI in response to events. In this post, I will discuss recent events from that perspective. What...
A little while ago I was reading a book review from the economist Kevin Bryan about AI’s likely impacts. He not only provides an excellent overview of the economic questions, but also makes a considerable effort to reconstruct why a large cluster of people (“AI people”) believe in much larger...
The empty cache problem I used to be terrible at starting on even moderately complex tasks. I was okay while “in the zone” in something, but if I had to start anything that involved reading any significant length of notes… I would be tempted to scroll Twitter first and waste...
Summary It is better documented than ever that the Industrial Revolution’s growth takeoff was plausibly caused by technologically-driven substitution out of land, the traditional constraint on production. This by itself, even without productivity growth outside of substitution, would have been sufficient to create the explosive economic growth that was observed....
Both economists and the AI community are highly interested in forecasting the magnitude and speed of AI’s impact on the economy. But economists and AI technologists speak different languages. Economists talk in aggregates and dynamics, while technologists talk about capabilities and benchmarks and product releases. Economists and technologists concern themselves...