Example 2

Suppose you're Sherlock Holmes investigating a case in which a red hair was left at the scene of the crime.
The Scotland Yard detective says, "Aha! Then it's Miss Scarlet. She has red hair, so if she was the murderer she almost certainly would have left a red hair there. P(redhair∣Scarlet)=99%, let's say, which is a near-certain conviction, so we're done."
"But no," replies Sherlock Holmes. "You see, but you do not correctly track

... (read more)

Replying toOpen Thread Fall 2024

roland1y

Open Thread Fall 2024

Bayes for arguments: how do you quantify P(E|H) when E is an argument? E.g. I present you a strong argument supporting Hypothesis H, how can you put a number on that?

Replying toMy Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation: Inventing Temperature

roland1y

My Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation: Inventing Temperature

His other books are also great.

Replying toCritical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky

roland2y

Critical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky

that it’s reasonably for Eliezer to not think that marginally writing more will drastically change things from his perspective.

Scientific breakthroughs live on the margins, so if he has guesses on how to achieve alignment sharing them could make a huge difference.

Replying toCritical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky

roland2y*

Critical review of Christiano's disagreements with Yudkowsky

I have guesses

Even a small probability of solving alignment should have big expected utility modulo exfohazard. So why not share your guesses?

Replying toUpdates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

roland3y

Updates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

Weighted step ups instead of squats

Lunges vs weighted step ups?

Replying toUpdates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

roland3y

Updates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

Source please

Replying toUpdates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

roland3y

Updates and Reflections on Optimal Exercise after Nearly a Decade

why would a weighted step up be better and safer than a squat?

Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020

roland

If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here’s a place to put it. (You can also make a shortform post)

And, if you are new to LessWrong, here’s the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are welcome.

If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, seeing if there are any meetups in your area, and checking out the Getting Started section of the LessWrong FAQ.

The Open Thread sequence is here.

Regarding laughter:

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NbbK6YKTpQR7u7D6u/false-laughter?commentId=PszRxYtanh5comMYS

You might say that a predictable punchline is too high-entropy to be funny

Since entropy is a measure of uncertainty a predictable punchline should be low entropy, no?

roland's Shortform

roland

This is a special post for quick takes (aka "shortform"). Only the owner can create top-level comments.

Welcome and Open Thread June 2019

roland

If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.

Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are welcome. If you want to explore the community more, I recommend reading the Library, checking recent Curated posts, and seeing if there are any meetups in your area.

The Open Thread sequence is here.

The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included

roland

Epistemic status: Personal experience.

This is another post in the spirit of:

Edit: I know that not everyone in the communities is aware of what is going on or involved with it, this was another reason for me to post this publicly.

I used to be a member of Rationality and EA Zürich before I was excluded by leading figures. Actually I was the organizer of the first Zürich meetup.

I will name people because they are all public figures in the sense that they are leaders and organizers of said events and I... (read 794 more words →)

-8

Intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution?

roland

What is the best mathematical, intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution? I'm looking for a short proof using the most elementary mathematics possible.

Please no explanation like "because entropy was designed in this way", etc...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_%28information_theory%29#Definition

Good forum for investing?

roland

11y

Hello I'm looking for the LW on investing advice. Any suggestions? Thanks.

EDIT:

Several commenters gave the standard advice of "buy index funds". If you bought into the Nikkei between 87 and 94 you would have made a loss or very little gains until now(30 years later). So I would appreciate some more in depth discussion regarding when is it good to invest into index funds? If you search in reddit/r/investing you will find more nuanced point of views.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EN225+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D

In general index funds will reflect the underlying economy, in the case of the US it was a growing economy for the most part of the 20th century, so the index fund would be good advice in that time period. I have a hard time believing that it is still good advice now, when the economy is retracting or stagnating.

TLDR: reddit/r/investing has more nuanced discussions.

-5

Cryonics in Europe?

roland

11y

What are the best options for cryonics in Europe?

AFAIK the best option is still to use one of the US providers(e.g. Alcor) and arrange for transportation. There is a problem with this though, in that until you arrive in the US your body will be cooled with dry ice which will cause huge ischemic damage.

Questions:

How critical is the ischemic damage? If I interpret this comment by Eliezer correctly we shouldn't worry about this damage if we consider future technology.
Is there a way to have adequate cooling here in Europe until you arrive at the US for final storage?

There is also KrioRus, a Russian cryonics company, they seem to offer an option of cryo transportation but I don't know how trustworthy they are.

Life insurance for Cryonics, how many years?

roland

12y

Hello,

one question that I don't see answered is what is the duration of your life insurance? Should I buy life insurance for 20,30 years or unlimited?

I could pay more for a longer life insurance or pay less for an insurance that will cover 20 years and invest the difference and then some so that by the end of 20 years I will *hopefully* have enough money to pay for cryonics out of my own pocket.

Has anyone done an analysis on that?

Meetup Zürich last minute

roland

12y

Meetup tomorrow(Wednesday) at 19:30, lets go!

http://lesswrong.com/meetups/10j

Meetup : Zurich/Zürich meetup (come out of the woodwork)

roland

12y

Discussion article for the meetup : Zurich/Zürich meetup (come out of the woodwork)

WHEN: 21 May 2014 07:30:00PM (+0200)

WHERE: Zürich Switzerland

There will be a meetup taking place this wednesday the 21st of may at 19:30; at the Kronenhalle-Bar(Bellevue in Zürich) https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kronenhalle/ I will print a paper written "LW Meetup" and place it on our table, so you guys can find it. Come on folks, I know there are some LWers in Zürich, lets come out of the woodwork. :) Two attendants confirmed. How to get there: Take public transport to the Bellevue station, then walk.

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

roland

Cryonics in Europe?

Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020

Welcome and Open Thread June 2019

Life insurance for Cryonics, how many years?

roland

roland

Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020

roland's Shortform

Welcome and Open Thread June 2019

The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included

Intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution?

Good forum for investing?

Cryonics in Europe?

roland

Cryonics in Europe?

Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020

Welcome and Open Thread June 2019

Life insurance for Cryonics, how many years?

roland

roland

Open & Welcome Thread—May 2020

roland's Shortform

Welcome and Open Thread June 2019

The sad state of Rationality Zürich - Effective Altruism Zürich included

Intuitive explanation of why entropy maximizes in a uniform distribution?

Good forum for investing?

Cryonics in Europe?

Is there an aphorism regarding the mistake P(E|H) = P(H|E) ?

Example 2

Discussion article for the meetup : Zurich/Zürich meetup (come out of the woodwork)

Discussion article for the meetup : Zurich/Zürich meetup (come out of the woodwork)