This is a somewhat technical note. By "software-only singularity", I mean that, after full automation of AI R&D, progress gets faster and faster due to smarter AIs driving increasingly fast rates of improvement in algorithms (overcoming diminishing returns), and that this lasts long enough to yield a large amount of...
Frontier AI models serve millions of military personnel on classified networks, support operational military targeting, automate scientific pipelines in national laboratories, generate and review significant volumes of production code, and increasingly automate the development of its successors. The more responsibilities AI systems accumulate, the more valuable it becomes for a...
TL;DR We test to what extent Qwen3-32B behaves as though it is trying to predict what "Qwen3" would do. We do this by using Synthetic Document Finetuning (SDF) to instill meta-beliefs of the form "Qwen3 believes X, even though X is false", then check whether the model acts as though...
AI companies should get third-party security experts to assess (and possibly also red-team/pen-test) their security against key threat models and then publish the high-level findings of this assessment: the extent to which they can defend against different threat actors for each threat model. They should also publish who did this...
Many people—especially AI company employees [1] —believe current AI systems are well-aligned in the sense of genuinely trying to do what they're supposed to do (e.g., following their spec or constitution, obeying a reasonable interpretation of instructions). [2] I disagree. Current AI systems seem pretty misaligned to me in a...
It turns out that Anthropic accidentally trained against the chain of thought of Claude Mythos Preview in around 8% of training episodes. This is at least the second independent incident in which Anthropic accidentally exposed their model's CoT to the oversight signal. In more powerful systems, this kind of failure...
Anthropic's system card for Mythos Preview says: It's unclear how we should interpret this. What do they mean by productivity uplift? To what extent is Anthropic's institutional view that the uplift is 4x? (Like, what do they mean by "We take this seriously and it is consistent with our own...