SimonM

In a recent edition of The Diff ($), Byrne Hobart pointed out a talk given by Robin Hanson at Manifest. The talk is well worth listening to. For example, Robin says: > I've always thought [Prediction Markets] was the best idea I've had in my life [...] My biggest contribution...

One common theme that I come across quite a bit in the prediction market space is: > Prediction markets would solve [x][1] And the proposal for "solving" [x] is: 1. Set up a prediction market 2. ??? 3. Profit These people need to consider the idea that "prediction markets aren't...

Or "how to account for fees" Over at the EA Forum, bob wrote an article "Don't Interpret Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities". In his post, he makes 3[1] cases against prediction market prices generating "fair" prices. 1. Opportunity cost - an incorrect price may be insufficiently incorrect for traders to...

h/t Eric Neyman for causing me to look into this again On a recent Mantic Monday, Scott Alexander said: > This is almost monotonically decreasing. Every day it’s lower than the day before. > > How suspicious should we be of this? If there were a stock that decreased every...

Last year, I looked at Scott's forecasts for 2021 and compared them to the market forecasts. Today I went through those forecasts (and Zvi's * - a buy/hold/sell exercise done on Scott's estimates) added the resolutions and calculated a Brier score and a log-score. Results were as follows: BrierLogScott0.201.24Zvi0.160.93Market0.140.90 So...

aka Why (some) market forecasts are biased and what can we do about them? tldr; When you care about an outcome, it will skew the odds you'll bet at. (To insure against bad outcomes). When everyone cares about an outcome, it skews the market odds. People (including myself) often point...

Scott Alexander has posted some predictions for 2021. Taking Zvi's approach from here and rather than making my own adjustments, making my best estimate of what various prediction (and financial) markets are saying the odds are. If anyone has seen a market for any of the questions listed here which...