StefanHex

Cambridge, UK

Astronomy PhD Student, University of Cambridge. Interested in AGI Alignment and actually understanding AI.

Nate Soares on the Ultimate Newcomb's Problem

This scenario seems impossible, as in contradictory / not self-consistent. I cannot say exactly why it breaks, but at least the two statements here seem to be not consistent:

today they [Omicron] happen to have selected the number X

and

[Omega puts] a prime number in that box iff they predicted you will take only the big box

Both of these statements have implications for X and cannot both be always true. The number cannot both, be random, and be chosen by Omega/you, can it?

From another angle, the statement

FDT will always see a prime number

demonstrates that something fishy is going on. The "random" number X that Omicron has chosen -- and is in the box -- and seen my FDT -- is "always prime". Then it is not a random number?

Edit: See my reply below, the contradiction is that Omega cannot predict EDT's behaviour when Omicron chose a prime number. EDT's decision depends on Omega's decision, and EDT's decision depends on Omega's decision (via the "do the numbers coincide" link). On days where Omicron chooses a prime number this cyclic dependence leads to a contradiction / Omega cannot predict correctly.

Selection Has A Quality Ceiling

Nice argument! My main caveats are

* Does training scale linearly? Does it take just twice as much time to get someone to 4 bits (top 3% in world, one in every school class) and from 4 to 8 bits (one in 1000)?

* Can we train everything? How much of e.g. math skills are genetic? I think there is research on this

* Skills are probably quite highly correlated, especially when it comes to skills you want in the same job. What about computer skills / programming and maths skills / science -- are they inherently correlated or is it just because the same people need both? [Edit: See point made by Gunnar_Zarncke above, better argument on this]

Open & Welcome Thread - February 2020

That is a very broad description - are you talking about locating Fast Radio Bursts? I would be very surprised if that was easily possible.

Background: Astronomy/Cosmology PhD student

I think I found the problem: Omega is unable to predict your action in this scenario, i.e. the assumption "Omega is good at predicting your behaviour" is wrong / impossible / inconsistent.

Consider a day where Omicron (randomly) chose a prime number (Omega knows this). Now an EDT is on their way to the room with the boxes, and Omega has to put a prime or non-prime (composite) number into the box, predicting EDT's action.

If Omega makes X prime (i.e. coincides) then EDT two-boxes and therefore Omega has failed in predicting.

If Omega makes X non-prime (i.e. numbers don't coincide) then EDT one-boxes and therefore Omega has failed in predicting.

Edit: To clarify, EDT's policy is two-box if Omega and Omicron's numbers coincide, one-box if they don't.