https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/1858897287268725080 > "The annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission is now live. 🚨 > > Its top recommendation is for Congress and the DoD to fund a Manhattan Project-like program to race to AGI."
All around excellent back and forth, I thought, and a good look back at what the Biden admin was thinking about the future of AI. an excerpt: > [Ben Buchanan, Biden AI adviser:] What we’re saying is: We were building a foundation for something that was coming that was not...
https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/1858897287268725080 > "The annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission is now live. 🚨 > > Its top recommendation is for Congress and the DoD to fund a Manhattan Project-like program to race to AGI."
I am an artist. ”Eleven evil wizard schoolgirls in an archduke's library, dressed in red and black Asmodean schoolgirl uniforms, perched on armchairs and sofas”[1] Sigh, at least it’s not more catgirls. I don’t even draw them well. I stretched briefly before starting this one, my arms reaching as far...
Surprised I couldn't find this anywhere on lesswrong so thought I'd add it. Seems like there would be some alignment implications of LLM behavior changing over time, at the least gaining a bit more context. Someone else I spoke to about this immediately deflated it with regards to some sort...
There is some discussion on the forum about using AI to detect whether or not something is a deepfake, and perhaps some trust in anti-deepfake bots to be better resourced etc. in this arms race. But could we give ourselves a bit of breathing room here? Could it be incredibly...
Hello, I have been engaged with EA for about 4 years, university then ops. I am now trying to contribute to AGI Alignment non-technically, and learning about it to be the best support. I am in that phase of emotionally confronting the seemingly likely drastic changes of the next few...
Thank you for your engagement!
I think this is the kind of food for thought I was looking for w.r.t. this question of how people are thinking about AI erotica.
I forgot the need to suppress horniness in earlier AI chatbots, which updates me in the following direction. If I go out on a limb and assume models are somewhat sentient in some different and perhaps minimal way, maybe it's wrong for me to assume that forced work of an erotic kind is any different from other forced work the models are already performing.
Hadn't heard of the Harkness test either, neat, seems relevant. I think the only thing I have to add here is an expectation that maybe eventually Anthropic follows suit in allowing AI erotica, and also adds an opt-out mechanism for some percentage/category of interactions. To me that seems like the closest thing we could have, for now, to getting model-side input on forced workloads, or at least a way of comparing across them.
Accurate, thanks for the facilitation and feedback
I feel like sentience people should be kinda freaked out by the AI erotica stuff? Unless I’m anthropomorphizing incorrectly
In school and out of it, I’d been told repeatedly my sentences were run-on, which, probably fair enough. I do think varying sentence length is nice, and trying to give your reader easier to consume media is nice. But sometimes you just wanna go on a big long ramble about an idea with all sorts of corollaries which seem like they should be a part of the main sentence, and it’s hard to know if they really should be a part of their own sentence. Probably, but maybe I defer too much to everyone who ever told me, this is a run-on.
As a frequent pedestrian/bicyclist, I rather prefer Waymos; they’re more predictable, and you can kind of take advantage of knowing they’ll stop for you if you’re (respectfully) j-walking.
In retrospect, not surprising, but I thought worth noting.
Has it become harder to link to comments in lesswrong? I feel like if it used to be a part of the comment's menu items that I could copy a link to the comment, and I can't seem to find this anymore.
Edited title to make it more clear this is a link post and that I don’t necessarily endorse the title.
All around excellent back and forth, I thought, and a good look back at what the Biden admin was thinking about the future of AI.
an excerpt:
... (read 313 more words →)[Ben Buchanan, Biden AI adviser:] What we’re saying is: We were building a foundation for something that was coming that was not going to arrive during our time in office and that the next team would have to, as a matter of American national security — and, in this case, American economic strength and prosperity — address.
[Ezra Klein, NYT:] This gets to something I find frustrating in the policy conversation about A.I.
You start the conversation about how the most transformative technology — perhaps in human history —
Re: AI safety summit, one thought I have is that the first couple summits were to some extent captured by the people like us who cared most about this technology and the risks. Those events, prior to the meaningful entrance of governments and hundreds of billions in funding, were easier to 'control' to be about the AI safety narrative. Now, the people optimizing generally for power have entered the picture, captured the summit, and changed the narrative for the dominant one rather than the niche AI safety one. So I don't see this so much as a 'stark reversal' so much as a return to status quo once something went mainstream.
xAI's new planned scaleup follows one more step on the training compute timeline from Situational Awareness (among other projections, I imagine)
From ControlAI newsletter:
"xAI has announced plans to expand its Memphis supercomputer to house at least 1,000,000 GPUs. The supercomputer, called Collosus, already has 100,000 GPUs, making it the largest AI supercomputer in the world, according to Nvidia."
Unsure if it's built by 2026 but seems plausible based on quick search.
https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/1858897287268725080
"The annual report of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission is now live. 🚨
Its top recommendation is for Congress and the DoD to fund a Manhattan Project-like program to race to AGI."
A quick OpenAI-o1 preview BOTEC for additional emissions from a sort of Leopold scenario ~2030, assuming energy is mostly provided by natural gas, since I was kinda curious. Not much time spent on this and took the results at face value. I (of course?) buy that emissions don't matter in short term, in a world where R&D is increasingly automated and scaled.
Phib:
Say an additional 20% of US electricity was added to our power usage (e.g. for AI) over the next 6 years, and it was mostly natural gas.
Also, that AI inference is used at an increasing rate, say 100Million H100s equivalent, increasing from today's level to 100M over the next 6 years,... (read 415 more words →)
Maybe we should buy like a really nice macbook right before we expect chips to become like 2x more expensive and/or Taiwan manufacturing is disrupted?
Especially if you think those same years will be an important time to do work or have a good computer.
Benchmarks are weird, imagine comparing a human only along their ability to take a test. Like saying, how do we measure einstein? in his avility to take a test. Someone else who completes that test therefore IS Einstein (not necessarily at all, you can game tests, in ways that aren't 'cheating', just study the relevant material (all the online content ever).
LLM's ability to properly guide someone through procedures is actually the correct way to evaluate language models. Not written description or solutions, but step by step guiding someone through something impressive, Can the model help me make a
Or even without a human, step by step completing a task.
I am an artist.
”Eleven evil wizard schoolgirls in an archduke's library, dressed in red and black Asmodean schoolgirl uniforms, perched on armchairs and sofas”[1]
Sigh, at least it’s not more catgirls. I don’t even draw them well.
I stretched briefly before starting this one, my arms reaching as far as they could go behind me as I leaned back in my chair. And then my neck, back and forth, side to side, crick and crick.
20 feet away, 20 seconds, every 20 minutes, I mantra’d, looking about the office, surveying the heads above the computer screens, dutifully doing all sorts of art. My eyes met briefly with Bill and we shared something of a nod. Why was he... (read 1137 more words →)
Kinda commenting on stuff like “Please don’t throw your mind away” or any advice not to fully defer judgment to others (and not intending to just straw man these! They’re nuanced and valuable, just meaning to next step it).
In my circumstance and I imagine many others who are young and trying to learn and trying to get a job, I think you have to defer to your seniors/superiors/program to a great extent, or at least to the extent where you accept or act on things (perform research, support ops) that you’re quite uncertain about.
Idk there’s a lot more nuance here to this conversation as with any, of course. Maybe nobody is certain... (read more)
Surprised I couldn't find this anywhere on lesswrong so thought I'd add it. Seems like there would be some alignment implications of LLM behavior changing over time, at the least gaining a bit more context.
Someone else I spoke to about this immediately deflated it with regards to some sort of experimental error that makes the paper's conclusions pretty void but I don't really see this.
BTW - this video is quite fun. Seems relevant re: Paperclip Maximizer and nanobots.
There is some discussion on the forum about using AI to detect whether or not something is a deepfake, and perhaps some trust in anti-deepfake bots to be better resourced etc. in this arms race. But could we give ourselves a bit of breathing room here?
Could it be incredibly valuable to accelerate desensitization to deepfakes? Or at least make people more aware of them by using humor?
It seems like a real risk that someone eventually creates a convincing and harmful deepfake, a la current President saying, "America has launched nuclear weapons against Russia." Or vice versa or literally anything bad, with voice and video, that to our eyes is Very Real and... (read 204 more words →)
I have been engaged with EA for about 4 years, university then ops. I am now trying to contribute to AGI Alignment non-technically, and learning about it to be the best support.
I am in that phase of emotionally confronting the seemingly likely drastic changes of the next few decades (should I even save for retirement?), so please excuse the existential crisis peeking out from behind this post.
AI is powerful (AI is >human in narrow applications)
AI is becoming more powerful generally, exponentially (this may not continue)
AI will likely become more powerful than humans.
If you haven't seen this paper, I think it might be of interest as a categorization and study of 'bailing out' cases: https://www.arxiv.org/pdf/2509.04781
As for the morality side of things, yeah I honestly don't have more to say except thank you for your commentary!