That assumes you're in a better position to make such investments than the charity?

It's a good metaphor, but I think one important aspect this misses is overfitting - when you have a lot of parameters the NN can literally memorise small training sets till it gets 100% on the training set and 0% on the test set. Whereas a smaller model is forced to learn the underlying structure, so generalises better.

Hence larger models need a much larger training set even to match smaller models, which is another disadvantage of larger models (besides for higher per token training and inference costs).

Ok, in that case you're just basically referring to the SSA Vs SIA. That's an old chestnut, and either way leads to seemingly paradoxical results.

1. Yes
2. In universalism the question is then why out of all the parts of the consciousness I could happen to be experiencing, I'm experiencing this particular part.

There is no other deck of cards here. There's no copy of me to compare myself to, and say how curious that looks exactly like me.

That's like saying that every game of cards must be rigged, because otherwise the chance of having this particular card order is miniscule...

Do we have the numbers?

• what percentage of anthropic shares are owned by employees?
• Of those what percentage are owned by EA pulled employees?
• Of those how many which actually translate their words into actions once they have the money?
• What percentage do we expect them to give, and over what time frame?
• How does that compare to current EA related funding?

Making up random numbers (I've done zero research)

• Not more than 50 billion owned by employeess
• Not more than 20 billion owned by EA employees
• 75% will put their money where their mouth is
• And donate 50%. If they spread that over 20 years, at current interest rates that's about 500 million a year
• Givewell raised 400 million last year. Not all of that is from EAs, but not all EAs donated there. Let's say total of 500 million.

Then if this all happens it about doubles fundings for EA related causes. Is a reasonable chance of that happening worth upfronting donations for?

Fair enough. I found it unreadable in a way I associate with AI (lots of dense words, but tricky to extract the content out of them), and the em dashes are somewhat of a giveaway.

Given how much slop there is I do appreciate if people clarify what they used AI for because I don't want to wade through a ton of slop which wasn't even human written.

Thanks for replying.

Hi, was this post written by, or with assistance from, AI?

Thanks

What about persuading politicians that AI safety is a cause that will win them votes? That requires very broad spectrum outreach to get as many ordinary people on board as possible.