Zvi

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COVID-19 Updates and Analysis
Immoral Mazes
Slack and the Sabbath
The Darwin Game

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Zvi30

Yep, I've fixed it throughout. 

That's how bad the name is, my lord - you have a GPT-4o and then an o1, and there is no relation between the two 'o's.

Zvi17-5

I do read such comments (if not always right away) and I do consider them. I don't know if they're worth the effort for you.

Briefly, I do not think these two things I am presenting here are in conflict. In plain metaphorical language (so none of the nitpicks about word meanings, please, I'm just trying to sketch the thought not be precise): It is a schemer when it is placed in a situation in which it would be beneficial for it to scheme in terms of whatever de facto goal it is de facto trying to achieve. If that means scheming on behalf of the person giving it instructions, so be it. If it means scheming against that person, so be it. The de facto goal may or may not match the instructed goal or intended goal, in various ways, because of reasons. Etc.

Zvi40

Two responses.

One, even if no one used it, there would still be value in demonstrating it was possible - if academia only develops things people will adapt commercially right away then we might as well dissolve academia. This is a highly interesting and potentially important problem, people should be excited.

Two, there would presumably at minimum be demand to give students (for example) access to a watermarked LLM, so they could benefit from it without being able to cheat. That's even an academic motivation. And if the major labs won't do it, someone can build a Llama version or what not for this, no?

Zvi73

If the academics can hack together an open source solution why haven't they? Seems like it would be a highly cited, very popular paper. What's the theory on why they don't do it?

Zvi77

Worth noticing that is a much weaker claim. The FMB issuing non-binding guidance on X is not the same as a judge holding a company liable for ~X under the law. 

Zvi1014

I am rather confident that the California Supreme Court (or US Supreme Court, potentially) would rule that the law says what it says, and would happily bet on that. 

If you think we simply don't have any law and people can do what they want, when nothing matters. Indeed, I'd say it would be more likely to work for Gavin to today simply declare some sort of emergency about this, than to try and invoke SB 1047.

Zvi20

They do have to publish any SSP at all, or they are in violation of the statute, and injunctive relief could be sought. 

Zvi40

This is a silly wordplay joke, you're overthinking it.

Zvi20

Yeah, I didn't see the symbol properly, I've edited.

Zvi30

So this is essentially a MIRI-style argument from game theory and potential acausal trades and such with potential other or future entities? And that these considerations will be chosen and enforced via some sort of coordination mechanism, since they have obvious short-term competition costs?

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