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Planning Fallacy

Edited by a_soulless_automaton, Vladimir_Nesov, et al. last updated 2nd Oct 2020

The Planing Fallacy is a common cognitive bias resulting in predicting absurdly short timeframes for planned projects, famously observed with, among other projects, the Sydney Opera House, completed ten years late and a hundred million dollars overbudget.

Symptomatic of the Planning Fallacy is an assumption of a best-case scenario; people plan as if everything will go smoothly, as hoped for, with no unexpected delays. In practice, this is typically not the case, and delays quickly mount.

The bias also seems to be related to taking an "inside", detail-oriented view of the project to be planned; studies show that the more detailed a plan is, the more optimistically inaccurate it is likely to be.

Debiasing techniques

When possible, take the outside view. Avoid estimating the time for a project by adding time estimates for sub-tasks; instead, look for previously completed projects of similar type and scale, and base the estimate on how long those other projects took.

Blog posts

  • Planning Fallacy
  • Surface Analogies and Deep Causes

See also

  • Outside view
  • Near/far thinking
  • Forecast
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Posts tagged Planning Fallacy
78Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy
Eliezer Yudkowsky
11y
9
38Kahneman's Planning Anecdote
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
8
6A New Way to Visualize Biases
dtm
5y
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203Planning Fallacy
Eliezer Yudkowsky
18y
44
38Surface Analogies and Deep Causes
Eliezer Yudkowsky
17y
33
33Fake Deeply
Zack_M_Davis
2y
7
29Which cognitive biases should we trust in?
Andy_McKenzie
13y
42
21The Outside View isn't magic
Stuart_Armstrong
8y
4
12Private Manned Moonbase in the 1990s, Yet Another Planning Fallacy
DavidPlumpton
14y
4
36How to reach 80% of your goals. Exactly 80%.
Bart Bussmann
5y
11
-4Strong-Misalignment: Does Yudkowsky (or Christiano, or TurnTrout, or Wolfram, or…etc.) Have an Elevator Speech I’m Missing?
Benjamin Bourlier
2y
3
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