LESSWRONG
LW

Wikitags

Prospect Theory

Edited by steven0461, Vladimir_Nesov, Grognor, PeerInfinity, et al. last updated 25th Sep 2020

Prospect Theory is an attempt by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman to construct a that describes the actual behavior of humans, rather than idealized decision-making.

An agent, in prospect theory:

  • is , and so weighs losses (relative to some reference point) more strongly than gains
  • is risk-averse with respect to gains, but risk-seeking with respect to losses
  • uses probability weighting: small probabilities count more and larger probabilities count less than they would under .

Blog posts

  • Shane Legg on prospect theory and computational finance
  • Prospect Theory: A Framework for Understanding Cognitive Biases

External links

  • Prospect theory at Psychology Wiki

See also

loss-averse
Loss aversion
rational
Heuristics and biases
decision theory
Decision theory
expected utility
Expected utility
Discussion0
Discussion0