I don't think that works. Purely causal calculations of the costs/benefits, even accounting for reputation, can't explain the winning answers in any of those cases except maybe expensive punishment. And even then, you can just use the harder version of the problem I gave in the linked discussion: what if, even accounting for future impact on the criminal and others who are deterred, the punishment still has a net cost?
Could you give me an idea of what you mean by e.g. a causal account of why:
shoplifting is easy,
most people don't shoplift,
most merchants accurately predict shoplifting rates,
each person is made strictly better off by their local decision to shoplift?
It's true that people usually give the winning answers to these problems (compared to what is possible), and without using TDT/UDT / Drescher's decision theory. But that doesn't answer the problem of finding a rigorous grounding for why they should do so.
Could you give me an idea of what you mean by e.g. a causal account of why:
People that don't shoplift lose more identity by shoplifting than they gain in stolen product.
That means I disagree with the claim that each person is made strictly better off by their local decision to shoplift. If they were actually made better off, they would shoplift. Actions reveal preferences.
I think that the source of the communication problem is that some people use the word "winning" for a result that other people would not characterize as a "win".
It is also confusing that you ask for a causal account of something and then shift to a paragraph talking about normative theories and "winning". I suppose it is possible to give an evolutionary account which incorporates both the normative and the causal - is this what you are asking for? Are you asking for an argument that not shoplifting is an ESS? I don't think that one is possible in a society that eschews "punishment".
I have not seen any place to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's new paper, titled Timeless Decision Theory, so I decided to create a discussion post. (Have I missed an already existing post or discussion?)