Ideas for rationalist meetup topics

[-][anonymous]14y120

West LA just had a new sort of meeting tonight, which worked out well: we made 2012 predictions! It was fun trying to hammer out probabilities, and we got to discuss people's models and priors on a range of topics.

[-]Thomas14y10

Will you publish them on LW?

[-][anonymous]14y10

None of us agreed to do so, and people may have been more hesitant had this been the plan.

I'll share mine, though they're not very interesting: 75% Obama wins the general election, 80% Yudkowsky doesn't finish MoR this year, 80% Burning Man tickets sell out by the end of June (95% by the end of July).

[-]amcknight14y80

You can make some ok money on Intrade if you think 75% Obama wins. Current market thinks it's about 51%.

[-]falenas10814y00

80% Yudkowsky doesn't finish MoR this year

This seems far too low to me. It's already been a year and a half since the creation of the fic, and Harry hasn't even finished his first year. Furthermore, it's been 3 months since the last update of MoR.

[-][anonymous]14y00

Four months, and the real question is how many arcs are left. I suspect there aren't that many. (Though 80% might still be low - this is my first time trying to put probabilities to my predictions!)

[-]Desrtopa14y00

I'd give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry's second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.

[-]jimrandomh14y10

I'd give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry's second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.

I'd give at least 50% odds that Harry leaves school and does something else before the end of his second year, but that this is not the end of the fic.

[-]orthonormal14y00

Good possibility to raise, but 50% seems way too high to me.

[-]Matt_Simpson14y30

Out of curiosity, why avoid Settlers of Catan?

[-]Zvi14y110

Personal opinion that the game is bad. It was the first German-style game people were exposed to, which meant it was compared to games like Monopoly and Life rather than other German-style games, which made it look good and catch on. Settlers is far too determined by early placement, has frustrating trading mechanisms, is diplomatic in bad ways without being diplomatic in good ways, and so on. Bottom line is that I don't find it fun or interesting.

As for Nomic, with the right crowd it's one of the best gaming experiences you can have, and in my experience Less Wrong groups fit that bill quite well. We have had excellent experiences every time.

[-]Matt_Simpson14y10

Personal opinion that the game is bad. It was the first German-style game people were exposed to, which meant it was compared to games like Monopoly and Life rather than other German-style games, which made it look good and catch on. Settlers is far too determined by early placement, has frustrating trading mechanisms, is diplomatic in bad ways without being diplomatic in good ways, and so on. Bottom line is that I don't find it fun or interesting.

Funny, I agree with every one of your criticisms after thinking about them a bit except your bottom line: I still find the game very fun. This makes me think Nomic will just be amazing.

[-]Kevin14y00

Have you typically played Nomic with the standard ruleset from the initial proposal?

I played an epic game of Nomic at Burning Man two years ago starting with the null ruleset, where it took over an hour to figure out how to agree to make the first rule. I think the zero rule Nomic is probably a more valuable exercise than the standard one with the arbitrary points.

[-]Zvi14y00

It is useful to have something that forces action, and you can easily make the points not matter if you want to. Our games have kept points relevant, but that is only one option. Game theoretical point madness is great fun.

[-]Prismattic14y00

I've seen several people suggest that Ad Astra has most of the positive aspects of Catan without most of the negative ones (e.g. production occurs when you play a produce card rather than depending on die rolls).

[-]wedrifid14y00

Personal opinion that the game is bad. It was the first German-style game people were exposed to, which meant it was compared to games like Monopoly and Life rather than other German-style games, which made it look good and catch on. Settlers is far too determined by early placement, has frustrating trading mechanisms, is diplomatic in bad ways without being diplomatic in good ways, and so on.

Those are actually some damn good criticisms. Settler's diplomacy pretty much just encourages bitchiness. It really does suck compared to alternatives. I'm going to have to look up those other ones you suggest.

[-]wedrifid14y00

And why avoid Settlers of Catan in favor of Nomic. (Because if you are going to play complete and utter nonsense you may as well at least make it Calvinball!)