This is a special post for quick takes by Scott Guerin. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
All, I am writing an long post inspired by the Anthropic Economic Index. I created a model showing how 150 Interpretive Exhibit Design tasks will evolve and adopt AI tools over the next ten years. But I am not sure if it rises to the level of LessWrong's readership or editorial standards.
Does this seem of interest?
DesAIn 2036: Interpretive Exhibits
Introduction
The use of AI in interpretive exhibit design (IXD) to accomplish many end-to-end tasks is nearing possibility and is likely a probability in 10 years.
Interpretive exhibit design, alone amongst design professions, uniquely combines experience design, physical design, graphic design, UI and media design, product design, architectural environments, and storytelling in spatial environments, geared to both general and specific audiences.
Thus, while AI is highly amenable to workflow integration in many IXD disciplines, several questions arise, common to in all fields, and will be considered. These include:
- Is “taste” the last stand for humans against AI? No, there are other factors explored below.
- Can adoption and capability be projected? Yes, by using known examples and extrapolating from AI job and task capability models as noted below.
- How will interpretive exhibit design jobs and workflow change? My modeling projects that about 33% of interpretive design tasks will remain strongly human-driven in 10 years, largely as a result of the need to physically build and install custom fixtures, by humans.
- What are the problems AI solves for interpretive designers? AI is evolving so quickly that it is tempting to say “all of them” once Artificial Super Intelligence arrives. For now, it is decreasing friction and “democratizing” creative expression at the risk of increasing "Enshitification."
- Can AI be creative? Yes, in a way, like a stimulating conversation. As usual, it’s “garbage in, garbage out.” But I’ve seen it come up with visual approaches I did not envision and I took advantage of them, but opinions are strongly divided.
We are at a moment in history when technological developments have balanced humanity on a razor’s edge. Tipping one way lies existential doom and extinction of the biosphere (P)doom)9. A nudge the other way lies “Machines of Loving Grace.”1 Assuming the latter, this report is an analysis of how a complex design endeavor will be impacted by an AI that in Andy Hall’s words26 “... give every human being on the planet access to a sort of political superintelligence, if we shape it right.”
I am hopeful at this thought because, as I have written elsewhere, IXD has largely been a myth-making endeavor. Will Superintelligent, or at least competent, well-prompted AIgentic curators and historians, be able to delineate historical truth and scientific fact? Will it be able to navigate cultural realities? Can they be aligned to do so? Will clients accept the “verdict”? Will the public?
Test Image
_________
humbly submitted for your thoughts!
Depends on how you shape the essay I guess. In the current state I can imagine something very interesting to read going into the details of the profession, or a very boring "how this job will get outcompeted by AI in the same way that most other jobs do". With your current draft/summary I personally would not want to read a full version because it is explaining things that I already agree with (point 1, 2, 5), and the remaining 2 points don't feel interesting enough.
It is hard to tell you what the general LW audience would think though.
appreciate your candor. Yes, I am preaching to the choir in the intro, but in the model and writeup I do go into details of the profession and imagine near-term team-member role evolution + AI.
Not sure how to insert images in the markdown scheme, so before I post the rest, I need to figure that out!
If you don't use the markdown editor then you can just paste images. If you still want to use the markdown editor then (or maybe pasting images also work in markdown? idk)
https://www.lesswrong.com/account?tab=preferences
