Lifelong quadriplegics are perfectly capable of love, right?
As a living being in need of emotional comfort and who would die quite easily, it would be extremely useful to express love to motivate care and indeed excessively so. A digital construct of the same brain would have immediately different concerns, e.g. less need for love and caring, more to switch to a different body, etc.
Substrate matters massively. More on this below.
Again, an perfect ideal whole-brain-emulation is a particularly straightforward case. A perfect emulation of my brain would have the same values as me, right?
Nope! This is a very common and yet widespread error, which I suppose comes from the idea that the mind comes from the brain. But even casually, we can tell that this isn't true: would a copy of you, for example, still be recognizably you if put on a steady drip of cocaine? Or would it still be you if you were permanently ingesting alcohol? Both would result in a variation of you that is significantly different, despite otherwise identical brain. Your values would likely have shifted then, too. Your brain is identical - only the inputs to it have changed.
In essence, the mind is the entire body, e.g.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/body-sense/202205/the-fiction-mind-body-separation
There is evidence that even organ transplants affect memory and mood.
The key here is that the self is always a dynamic construct of the environment and a multiplicity of factors. The "you" in a culture of cannibalism will likely have different values than a "you" in a culture of Shakers, to add to it.
The values of someone who is a digital construct who doesn't die and doesn't need to reproduce very much will be very different from a biological creature that needs emotional comfort, values trust in an enviromment of social deception, holds heroism in high regard due to the fragility of life, and needs to cooperate with other like minds.
Is it theoretically possible? If you replicate all biological conditions to a digital construct, perhaps but its fundamentally not intrinsic to the substrate, where digital substrate entails perfect copying via mechanical processes, while biology entails dynamic agentic cells in coordination and much more variability in process. Its like trying to use a hammer to be a screwdriver.
The concept of the holobiont goes much deeper into this and is a significant reason why I think any discussion of digital copying is the equivalent of a shadowy undead mockery than anything else, since it fails to account for the fundamental co-evolutions that build up an "organism."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holobiont
In life, holobionts do change and alter, but its much more like evolutional extensions and molding by degree. Mechanism just tromps over it by fiat.
Tl;dr
When people work towards making a good future in regards to Transformative AI (TAI), what’s the vision of the future that they have in mind and are working towards?
I’ll propose four (caricatured) answers that different people seem to give:
For each of these four, I will go through:
I’ll interject a lot of my own opinions throughout, including a suggestion that, on the current margin, the community should be putting more direct effort into technical work towards contingency-planning for Vision 2.
Warning 1: Oversimplifications. This document is full of oversimplifications and caricatures. But hopefully it’s a useful starting point for certain purposes.
Warning 2: Jargon & Unexplained Assumptions. Lots of both; my target audience here is pretty familiar with the AGI safety and alignment literature, and buys into widely-shared assumptions within that literature. But DM me if something seems confusing or dubious, and I’ll try to fix it.
Vision 1: “Helper AIs”—AIs doing specifically what humans want them to do
1.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
By and large, people in this camp have an assumption that TAI will look, and act, and be trained, much like LLMs, but they’ll work better. They also typically have an assumption of slow takeoff, very high compute requirements for powerful AI, and relatively few big actors who are training and running AIs (but many more actors using AI through an API).
There are two common big-picture stories here:
1.2 Potential causes for concern
1.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
Vision 2: “Autonomous AIs”—AIs out in the world, doing whatever they think is best
2.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
By and large, people in this camp have an assumption that TAI will be more in the category of humans, animals, and “RL agents” like AlphaStar. They often talk about AIs that think, figure things out, exhibit plan and foresight, come up with and autonomously implement clever out-of-the-box ways to solve their problems, etc. The AIs are generally assumed to do online learning (a.k.a. “continual learning”) as they figure out new things about the world, thus getting more and more competent over time without needing new human-provided training data, just as humans themselves do (individually and in groups). Also, a few people in this camp (not me) think that it’s very important in this story that the AI has a robotic body.[2]
As I mentioned in Vision 1 above, there’s no sharp line between the helper AIs of Vision 1 and the truly-autonomous AIs of Vision 2. For example, one can imagine a continuum from a ‘sycophantic servant AI’ that does whatever gets immediate approval from the human; to a ‘parent AI’ that may ask the human’s opinion, and care a lot about it, but also be willing to overrule that opinion in favor of (what it sees as) the human’s long-term best interest; to a ‘independent AI’ that could operate just fine without ever meeting a human in the first place. For clarity, I’ll focus discussion on a pretty extreme version of Vision 2.
In that case, an important conceptual distinction (as compared to Vision 1) is related to AI goals:
In Vision 1, there’s a pretty straightforward answer of what the AI is supposed to be trying to do—i.e., whatever the human supervisor had in mind, which can be inferred pretty well from some combination of general human data (from which the AI can get context, unspoken assumptions, etc.) and talking to the human in question (from which the AI can get details). The implementation side is by no means straightforward, but in Vision 1, you at least basically know what you’re hoping for.
By contrast, in Vision 2, it’s head-scratching to even say what the AI is supposed to be doing. We’re expecting the AIs to make lots of decisions where “do what the human wants” is not actionable—there might be no human around to ask, and/or not enough time to ask them, and/or the considerations might involve a lot of background knowledge or context that humans don’t know, and/or this may be a weird situation where humans would be very unsure (or even mistaken) about what they would want even if those humans did understand all the context and consequences. Recall, we’re generally expecting the AIs to go invent new science and technology, and build their own idiosyncratic concept-spaces, etc., and then, in this new world, which is out-of-distribution relative to all its prior experiences and human data, we generally expect the AIs to continue to make lots of high-context decisions on the fly without necessarily checking in with humans.
So that’s a problem. The paths I’ve heard of for tackling this problem seem to be:[3]
The most conceptually-straightforward version of (C) is to start with Whole Brain Emulation (WBE) of unusually decent and upstanding humans, then make it far more competent via speeding it up, tweaking it, adding more virtual cortical neurons, etc. After all, if it’s possible for humans to make decisions we’re happy about, directly or indirectly, then it’s possible in principle for WBEs of those humans to make those same good decisions too; and conversely, if it’s not possible for humans to make good decisions, directly or indirectly, then we’re screwed no matter what.
Another variation on (C) (my favorite!) involves “brain-like AGI” with (the better parts of) reverse-engineered human social instincts, more on which in 2.3 below.
2.2 Potential causes for concern
2.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
I thinkEncultured AIis trying to do something related to that?Whoops, nope, they’ve pivoted.2.4 Hang on there Steve, this is your vision? This is what you actually want?
It’s important to distinguish “trying to make this vision happen” from “contingency-planning for this vision”. Taking them separately:
Vision 3: Supercharged biological human brains (via intelligence-enhancement or merging-with-AI)
3.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
3.2 Potential causes for concern
3.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
Vision 4: Don’t build TAI
4.1 Typical assumptions and ideas
4.2 Potential causes for concern
4.3 Who is thinking about this? And if this is your vision, what should you be working on?
(Thanks Seth Herd, Linda Linsefors, Charlie Steiner, and Adam Marblestone for critical comments on earlier drafts.)
One of many challenges is that this kind of scenario planning leans on lots of technical questions about how future AI will work in detail, how competent it will be at different tasks, how much compute it will take to run (both at first, and in the longer term), and so on. It also leans on social questions, like how institutions and individual decision-makers will react in different (unprecedented) circumstances. And it also depends on various aspects of the “tech tree”, i.e. what inventions may be invented in the future. These are all really hard questions, so maybe it’s no surprise that reasonable people wind up with different opinions.
By the way, this is a prominent example of my more general rant that there has been insufficient progress and professionalization around thinking through strategies and scenarios of what might happen as we transition into TAI. Part of the problem is that it’s really inherently hard and complicated, with a million rabbit-holes and no empirical feedback; and part of the problem is that it sounds like “weird sci-fi stuff”, so academics generally won’t touch it (besides FHI, to their credit). I’m not really sure how to make this situation better though. (There are a bunch of long TAI-related technical reports from OpenPhil; I have my complaints, but I think that’s a good genre.)
I strongly expect that future powerful autonomous AIs will be able to use teleoperated robot bodies, with very little practice, just as humans can use teleoperated robot bodies with very little practice. I don’t think it’s very important that future AIs have robot bodies, in the human or animal sense. For example, lifelong-quadriplegic humans can be remarkably intelligent. More discussion of “embodiment” here.
One can imagine other related scenarios such as “make an AI that wants to set up a Long Reflection and cede power to whatever the result is”, or “make an AI that sets up and oversees an atomic communitarian thing”. But I think those aren’t an alternative to (A,B,C) in the text, but rather a broad strategy that we might hope the AIs with (A,B,C) type motivations will choose to pursue. After all, you can’t just wave a wand and get a Long Reflection; you need to make it happen, in the real world, including setting up appropriate institutions, rules of deliberation, etc., and that would involve the AI making lots of autonomous decisions, long before there is any Long Reflection outputs to defer to. So the AI still needs to have its own motivations that we’re happy about.
See e.g. Carl Shulman on the possible time-course of AI takeover.
“But what about comparative advantage?” you say. Well, I would point to the example of a moody 7-year-old child in today’s world. Not only would nobody hire that kid into their office or high-tech factory, but they would probably pay good money to keep him out, because he would only mess stuff up. And if the 7yo could legally found his own company, we would never expect it to get beyond a lemonade stand, given competition from dramatically more capable and experienced adults. So it will be, I claim, with all humans in a world of advanced autonomous AIs, if the humans survive.
I’m not an expert, but see here (including replies) for some references.
In this context, “working on Whole Brain Emulation (WBE)” would include both “making WBE happen” and “arguing about whether WBE is a good idea in the first place”. My own opinion is that WBE is quite unlikely to happen before AGI (and in particular, very unlikely to happen before having brain-like AGI that is not a WBE of a particular person); but if it did happen, it could be a very useful ingredient in a larger plan, with some care and effort. Others disagree with WBE being desirable in the first place; see e.g. here.