Forecasting Festival hosted by Manifold
TL;DR: Manifold is hosting a conference! 🥳 Chat with the Manifold team, special guests like Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more at our inaugural in-person gathering of the forecasting & prediction market community.
More info & buy tickets: manifestconference.net
WHEN: Sept 22-24
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
WHO: Everyone in the forecasting, EA, and LW communities. If you're reading this, you're invited!
Join the Discord here :)
Why should I come?
Forecasting and prediction markets are effective ways of improving our judgement and decision-making — most people in the Effective Altruism and LessWrong communities will feel right at home at Manifest.
Here are extra reasons to come:
- you think forecasting & prediction markets are impactful/fun/cool/rational/intriguing/etc
- you want to vibe with other forecasting nerds
- you want to engage & network with the forecasting community (find jobs/recruit hires/see what’s out there)
- you want to meet & chat with the Manifold team and our special guests (including Robin Hanson, Shayne Coplan, Patrick McKenzie, Dylan Matthews, Destiny, Aella, and more!)
- you want enjoy the gorgeous Rose Garden Inn
- …or if you like memes?
A day at Manifest
Everything’s optional. There will always be a bunch of sessions running concurrently, but this is an example of what your day at Manifest might look like:
10-11 — Opening session
11-12 — Fireside chat: Robin Hanson
12-1 — Lunch & mingling
1-2 — Estimathon: fermi estimation with prizes and steep competition!
2-3 — Speed friending: a few chats with other friendly, ambitious forecasting nerds :)
3-4 — Break: relax, vibe, unwind, chill, destress, etc
4-5 — Panel: Forecasting Founders (hear from Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Insight Predictions, and more!)
5-6 — Games & markets: chess, poker, and prediction markets!
6-7 — Dinner & mingling
7-8 — Workshop: How to Write Good Forecasting Questions
8-12 — Murder She Bet: a murder mystery + a low-tech prediction market = fun!
Who else is coming?
The rest of the forecasting & prediction market community. Current speakers & special guests include:
- The whole Manifold team, including co-founders Austin Chen and Stephen & James Grugett
- Robin Hanson (economist & professor)
- Shayne Coplan (CEO of Polymarket)
- Patrick McKenzie (writer, Advisor at Stripe)
- Dylan Matthews (Head writer at Future Perfect, Vox)
- Destiny (streamer & political streamer)
- Aella (sex researcher & writer)
- Josh Rosenberg (CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute)
- Rational Animations (Rationality Youtuber)
- Byrne Hobart (Author of The Diff)
- Cate Hall (CEO of Alvea)
- Robert Miles (AI safety researcher & writer)
- …and more to be announced!
For the most up-to-date info, see manifestconference.net/speakers :)
Where can I buy tickets?
Buy tickets & check the most up-to-date info on the Manifest website! Tickets are free for students and employees of forecasting organizations.
