i'll give two answers, the Official Event Guidelines and the practical social environment.^[1] i will say that i have have a bit of a COI in that i'm an event organizer; it'd be good if someone who isn't organizing the event, but e.g. attended the event last year, to either second my thoughts or give their own.

1. Official Event Guidelines
   1. Unsafe drug use of any kind is disallowed and strongly discouraged, both by the venue and by us.
   2. Illegal drug use is disallowed and strongly discouraged, both by the venue and by us.
   3. Alcohol use during the event is discouraged, but you can bring & drink your own if you drink responsibly. However, at the official afterparty (and possibly at some points during Summer Camp), we may serve drinks. Broadly, our rules with regard to alcohol are "drink responsibly; please don't drink during the day; definitely don't drink if you're going to drink irresponsibly, because that will be no fun for us and definitely no fun for you." The social environment will not be conducive to alcohol during the day, and probably not super conducive at night.
2. practical social environment
   1. during the main event, drugs & alcohol are pretty strongly discouraged. it makes the event lower quality for everyone.
   2. during the official afterparty, we'll probably serve alcohol in moderate, safe amounts. we will not be serving drugs, and the social environment will probably not be very conducive to drugs.
   3. i could imagine that external, unofficial parties/meetups/etc have a different vibe. for these, my guess is that if you can imagine something between a regular conference meetup at a bar and a college party, you're probably somewhere on the right track. note that you are on your own if you attend external, unnofficial parties.

1. ^{^}

   for future reference, i do not necessarily endorse the practical social environment. more formally, the stance i take was written in the first bullet point (the Official Event Guidelines), regardless of anything written in the second bullet point.

thanks oli, and thanks for editing mine! appreciate the modding <3

thanks for writing this — also, some broad social encouragement for the practice of doing quick/informal lit reviews + posting them publicly! well done :)

that is... wild. thanks for sharing!

I think institutional market makers are basically not pricing [slow takeoff, or the expectation of one] in

why do you think they're not pricing this in?

Really love this post. Thanks for writing it!

thanks for the feedback on the website. here's the explanation we gave on the manifest announcement post:

In the week between LessOnline and Manifest, come hang out at Lighthaven with other attendees! Cowork and share meals during the day, attend casual workshops and talks in the evening, and enjoy conversations by the (again, literal) fire late into the night.

Summer Camp will be pretty lightweight: we’ll provide the space and the tools, and you & your fellow attendees will bring the discussions, workshops, tournaments, games, and whatever else you’re excited about organizing.

Here are the types of events you’ll see at Summer Camp:

• Hackathons (or “Forecastathons”)
• Organized discussions and workshops
• Jam sessions and dance parties
• Games of all kinds: social deception games, poker, MTG, jackbox, etc.
• Campy activities: sardines, s’mores, singalongs
• Multi-day intensive workshops, e.g. a CFAR-style workshop or a Quantitative Trading Bootcamp (Note: these may come at some extra cost, TBD by the organizers)

let me know if you have other questions.

I really enjoyed this — thank you for writing. I also think the updated version is a lot better than the previous version, and I appreciate the work you put in to update it. I'm really, really looking forward to the other posts in this sequence.

I'd also really enjoy a post that's on this exact topic, but one that I'd feel comfortable sending to my mom or something, cf "Broad adverse selection (for poets)."

cf "there's no speed limit"

relevant: story-based decision-making