This is a special post for quick takes by Arjun Khandelwal. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
It would be cool if lesswrong had a feature that automatically tracked when predictions are made.
Everytime someone wrote a post, quick take or comment an LLM could scan the content for any predictions. It could add predictions which had an identifiable resolution criteria/date to a database (or maybe even add it to a prediction market). Would then be cool to see how calibrated people are.
We could also do this retrospectively by going through every post ever written and asking an LLM to extract predictions (maybe we could even do this right now I think it would cost on the order of 100$).