From another comment:
When we discuss whether he's a crackpot we should also discuss whether all those people in power who initially said masks don't work listening to think tanks instead of the most qualified experts should be considered crackpots. I think the case for Fauci being a crackpot is a lot better then for Kirsch.
From You:
Don't extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence? They seem to think that they themselves having seen some evidence is enough, so there's little need to present it to their audience.
They seem to be advocating for the type of science and evidentiary methods from 2019 and earlier. It seems to me, the extraordinary claims are originating starting around February 2020 from some folks who have a lot of friends in mass media. Masks absolutely do not work, and you will be banned from public discourse if you disagree. This was the ordinary claim made with ordinary evidence, and we all agreed with it and abided by it because we had to.
A few weeks later, the ordinary claim made with ordinary evidence was masks are absolutely required. Some time later, two masks are better than one. I still remain unconvinced.
If I have to choose between the enforced beliefs-from-above mass media controllers and these three guys, with their... "extraordinary claims" without "extraordinary evidence," I'm going with these three guys. Would prefer some sane discussion, though, since this is a somewhat serious disease causing somewhat serious problems for our global society.
Related, although I have sympathy with Kirsch's position and views, when I read his "paper" or whatever it is, it reads like a manic schizophrenic. And as another commenter pointed out, I think he is too quick to include some anecdata or shoddy studies into his mountain of evidence, which is a huge "conspiracy theorist" tell. I'm not sure I want Kirsch on my side, save for the fact that he has collected all this stuff together, while no-one else did. I suppose the flawed hero is better than no hero at all.
Without relying on mass media, i've seen far too many simulations and demonstrations (various camera and imaging types) and far too many detailed articles specifying particle size, mechanisms of viral distribution, viral load and the like to convince me that there is sufficient efficacy to warrant their use.
Yes, this includes discussions with people I know that work or who have worked in front-line medical positions. Yes, how the wearer uses / fits a mask, touches / adjusts it, disposes / reuses, which type of masks and how much other protocols are followe... (read more)
One month ago I clumsily tried to persuade my 74-year-old father that Tucker Carlson is probably wrong about Covid vaccines killing 3000 people, and if not, my father should get the vaccine anyway because he is in a high-risk group.
Well, move over lab-leak discussion, because this video is a tad more explosive: it alleges an ongoing and almost systematic censorship of information about vaccine side-effects, and it manages to do so in a way that fails to trip my BS detectors. While the LessWrong community isn't known for its expertise in vaccine science and epidemiology, it's usually pretty good about separating the true from the false, so here I am to ask for your comments. While the video is extremely long, the most controversial claims come near the beginning.
It's hosted by Bret Weinstein who (says Wikipedia) 'came to national attention during the 2017 Evergreen State College protests' and 'is among the people referred to collectively as the "intellectual dark web"'. The video description says Robert Malone is "the inventor of mRNA Vaccine technology"; he doesn't have a Wikipedia page, but he is mentioned on the page about mRNA vaccines as having 'developed a high-efficiency in-vitro and in-vivo RNA transfection system using cationic liposomes, which were used "to directly introduce RNA into whole tissues and embryos", as well as various cells types' in 1989. Finally there's Steve Kirsch, a red-tribey-sounding serial entrepreneur who mostly does tech firms but has been "researching adverse reactions to COVID vaccines". Steve frequently interrupts the other two, but at least seems very knowledgeable and well-connected (not to mention wealthy).
At first I was going to make this a 'question', but there's a lot to unpack and I think it could generate a lot of discussion, so I made it a 'post' instead.
Summary of the video's main points & discussions:
Edit: After reviewing everything, I'm seeing some signs of BS, mainly centered around Steve, who takes some rather extreme interpretations as fact (the summary above omits Steve's many interjections demonstrating this). One example is that he acts like it's crazy that everybody hasn't already accepted the greatness of ivermectin, even though the best evidence is said to be in a paper that hasn't been published yet. Also, his May 25 article (linked twice above already) has even more extreme claims than this video. And yet, Bret thinks Steve's article is great (assuming the URL at 2:17:34 is the one he gushed about in the beginning). While Dr. Malone occasionally disagrees, it's rare; for the most part he explicitly agrees, nods, or expresses no skepticism. So my main point of concern is that the three of them are very credulous about the strongest claims, and don't take seriously the possibility that they could be wrong. Plus, they show no interest in possible differences between the vaccines. Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are both mRNA-based, but this hardly guarantees the same risks for both. But they speak about all vaccines (4 brands in 2 categories) as a singular entity, "the vaccine".
As I noted a month ago, it is required to report deaths after vaccine administration to VAERS, so if it's more common to give a Covid vaccine to elderly and ill patients than it was to give seasonal flu vaccines to elderly and ill patients, this could explain the VAERS data. If the reporting requirement is new or more publicized, that could help explain it too. And if a vaccine is causing these deaths, where are the lawuits? Alleging "the" vaccine has killed tens of thousands of people, with no sign of having considered any alternative hypotheses, is a big red flag and if Steve proves to be incorrect, his efforts will probably cause deaths, because surely there are many elderly people like my parents who have chosen to stay unvaccinated due to messages like this. If Steve is correct, it is still important to do a cost-benefit analysis of vaccination vs no vaccination, particularly in regard to high-risk groups like my parents, and Steve did not attempt to do that either in the video or on his blog.
Also important is how little evidence is directly presented; mostly it's just alluded to. Don't extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence? They seem to think that they themselves having seen some evidence is enough, so there's little need to present it to their audience. Since the number of views has topped 350,000, I encourage interested people to see if they can debunk, support or clarify some of these claims. While I suspect the claims about vaccine deaths are overstated (perhaps dramatically), I think there's a lot of common-sense reasoning in this video that will stand the test of time.
The video was deleted for 'Violating YouTube's Terms of Service'. See below for alternate links.
P.S. Here are the results of Canada's voluntary Covid-19 vaccine safety survey. It would be nice if they offered more detail on the more major side-effects, but...