A common coherence defense of EU is that it blocks money pumps and exploitation. Yet Savage's axioms usually make dominated acts tie some dominating acts in EU.

Epistemic status

Math claim precise; alignment implications speculative. The proofs are joint work with Jingni Yang; the framing here is mine. Full writeup here.

Why start with Savage, not vNM

Most coherence writing on LessWrong and the Alignment Forum targets vNM, which assumes a given probability measure. Savage's framework is more fundamental. It derives both utility and probability from preferences alone. If dominance fails here, the gap is upstream of vNM. The result below shows it does.

The claim

Let be the state space. Acts are functions from states to a nondegenerate real interval of consequences (i.e., an interval containing more than one point, such as ).

Incompatibility Theorem (Countable). If is countably infinite, the following two conditions cannot hold simultaneously for a preference relation :

1. Savage's Axioms P1-P7 (Savage 1954/1972, Ch. 5)
2. Strict Dominance: For any acts , if for every state , and on some non-null event, then . ^[1]

Incompatibility Theorem (Uncountable). If is uncountably infinite, the same incompatibility holds under the axiom of constructibility. ^[2]

In plain English: under the axiom of constructibility, you can always construct an act that pays strictly more than a constant act across an entire positive-probability event, yet Savage's EU assigns them the same value. The improvement is real, state by state, but the representation cannot see it.

Proof idea

Savage's framework formally defines events as all arbitrary subsets of the state space (Savage 1954/1972, p. 21). His Postulates P5 and P6 together force the state space to be infinite (p. 39). Together, these imply Savage's EU ^[3] on the full event domain (), with a convex-ranged representing probability . Convex-ranged: for any event and any number , there is a subevent with .

Convex-rangedness implies that every singleton is null. If a singleton had positive probability, convex-rangedness would require a subset of with exactly half that probability, which is impossible.

In the countable case, is a countable union of null sets with , so the null sets cannot form a -ideal. By Armstrong's equivalence (1988), this forces local strong finite additivity (LSFA). In the uncountable case, set-theoretic work under the axiom of constructibility yields the same conclusion. ^[4] Either way, there exists an event and a partition such that

Since is monotonic, it has at most countably many discontinuities. Choose strictly below the upper bound of the consequence interval to be a right-continuity point of , and take a sequence so that:

Then define

and

is weakly better than in every state. If dominance were respected, we would have .

We can bound the EU difference by discarding the first null partition pieces and overestimating the remainder:

because the first pieces are null, and on the tail the utility increment is at most .

Since , the right-hand side tends to . Hence

Dominance is violated.

What this means in practice

Not a money pump. No cyclic preferences. This failure is prior to any pump. Expected utility evaluation is completely blind to the difference between an act and a strictly better alternative on a positive-probability event. ^[5]

That violates the dominance property coherence was supposed to secure. Whether this indifference can be turned into exploitable menu behavior depends on further assumptions about compensation and trade -- but the core theorem stands independently of that question.

Simply put: is strictly better than on every state in a non-null event, yet . (Note that must take on infinitely many outcome values; Wakker (1993) proved strict dominance survives if restricted to simple, finitely-valued acts).

Nearest predecessor

Wakker (1993) proved that Savage's axioms usually imply violations of strict stochastic dominance, and Stinchcombe (1997) provided an example showing indifference between an act and one that pointwise dominates it for countably infinite states.

The dominance property here is more primitive than stochastic dominance, and the claim is stronger than a pure existence example. While Wakker and Stinchcombe provided specific constructions, I prove a structural impossibility theorem. Via a classical equivalence (Armstrong 1988), every Savage representing probability on the universal domain exhibits this pathology. The violation follows unconditionally for every Savage representation, not just a hand-picked prior.

Savage's framework necessarily generates these dominance failures. ^[6]

I suspect the universal domain does most of the work, but I have not been able to cleanly separate it from specifically Savagean structure such as P2 or P4.

Why the Savage setup matters

Whether the state space relevant to us is effectively infinite, and whether a coherence theorem for general agency should be formulated on Savage's full event domain or on a restricted event algebra, are questions I consider genuinely open. When philosophers invoke Savage's axioms, they rely on his idealized universal domain (). Without it, you cannot claim coherence dictates preferences over all possible strategies. This creates a dilemma.

Keep the universal domain, and you get the dominance failure proved above. Savage's own axioms, taken at face value, do not secure dominance.

Drop the universal domain to fit bounded computation, and you lose Savage's original universality. Savage wants all acts to have a measure, while the countably additive approach assumes only some "measurable acts" do.

Either way, the coherence pitch has a gap. The result does not claim any physical AI system needs . It claims the theoretical argument, "coherence implies EU, and EU means you can't be exploited," relies on a framework that breaks its own dominance property.

Possible repairs

• restrict to a -algebra and impose countable additivity,
• or relax Savage's axioms (e.g. weaken P2 or P4), moving to a different decision model entirely.

These work, but require abandoning Savage's original universal-domain ambition, which is what underpins the strongest, most unconditional coherence claims.

Takeaway for alignment

• Thornley (2023) argued coherence theorems do not deliver anti-exploitation conclusions, noting Savage's theorem says nothing about dominated actions or vulnerability to exploitation.
• Shah (2019) noted coherence theorems are invoked to claim deviating from EU means executing a dominated strategy, but this does not follow.
• Ngo (2023) asked what coherent behavior amounts to once training pressure pushes agents toward EU.
• Yudkowsky (2017) argues coherence secures dominance. On a universal domain, Savage's axioms null every singleton, leaving expected utility blind to pointwise improvements.

I make the gap concrete. Savage's axioms on a universal domain admit strict pointwise dominance between acts of identical expected utility. I grant the axioms entirely and prove with perfect coherence, the representation does not secure statewise dominance, vindicating Thornley's warning from an alternative angle.

If the case for expected utility is that pressure toward coherence should drive agents toward exploitation-resistant choice, the conclusion does not follow. Shah identified a first gap; this theorem widens it. If this blindness persists into value learning, fitting an EU model to observed behavior may inherit the dominance gap, leaving inferred preferences unable to distinguish an act from a genuine statewise improvement. This raises the possibility that an agent whose EU representation carries this gap could, under some conditions, be steered into accepting dominated trades during sequential plan execution.

Concluding remarks

My result does not show that EU is wrong; I target Savage's universal-domain framework with subjective probabilities. The theorem shows that dominance violations follow inevitably from the axioms, not that rational agents should weakly prefer dominated acts. The precise claim:

In Savage's own full-domain, finitely additive framework, every preference satisfying Savage's axioms contains some pair of acts such that dominates , yet .

The open question is whether any repair can close the dominance gap while preserving enough of Savage's universal domain ambition for the coherence argument to retain its philosophical force, or, whether every such repair sacrifices the universality that made the pitch compelling in the first place.

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Appendix: Proof sketch for the uncountable case

The bridge from set theory to decision theory is Armstrong's equivalence. The null sets of a finitely additive probability on form a -ideal if and only if the measure is not locally strongly finitely additive.

To force a dominance failure, it suffices to show that a finitely additive probability on cannot have null sets forming a -ideal.

Countably infinite . Savage's axioms imply every singleton is null. If the null sets were a -ideal, then the countable union of all singletons, namely itself, would be null, contradicting .

Uncountable . Assume toward contradiction that a finitely additive probability on has -ideal null sets. Let be the additivity cardinal. One shows:

1. (since is a -ideal).
2. is -saturated (by a finite-additivity counting argument).
3. By Fremlin's Proposition 542B, is quasi-measurable.
4. By Fremlin's Proposition 542C, every quasi-measurable cardinal is weakly inaccessible, and either or is two-valued-measurable.
5. Under the axiom of constructibility: GCH gives , and Scott's theorem rules out measurable cardinals.
6. So . But is not weakly inaccessible. Contradiction.

Once the null ideal fails to be a -ideal, Armstrong gives local strong finite additivity: there exists with partitioned into countably many null sets . This construction yields acts where dominates yet , violating dominance.

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References

• Armstrong, T. E. (1988). Strong singularity, disjointness, and strong finite additivity of finitely additive measures.
• Fremlin, D. H. (2008). Measure Theory, Volume 5: Set-Theoretic Measure Theory.
• Kadane, J. B., Schervish, M. J., & Seidenfeld, T. (1999). Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics.
• Ngo, R. (2023). Value systematization.
• Savage, L. J. (1954/1972). The Foundations of Statistics.
• Scott, D. (1961). Measurable cardinals and constructible sets.
• Shah, R. (2019). Coherence arguments do not entail goal-directed behavior.
• Stinchcombe, M. (1997). Countably additive subjective probabilities.
• Thornley, S. (2023). There are no coherence theorems.
• Wakker, P. (1993). Savage's axioms usually imply violation of strict stochastic dominance.

1. An event is a subset of the state space. An event is null if changes on that event never affect preference. Once probability is granted, a null event is simply a zero-probability event. ↩︎

2. The constructibility axiom is used in Wakker (1993) and Stinchcombe (1997). ↩︎

3. De Finetti and Savage both resisted countable additivity as a rationality constraint. Kadane, Schervish, and Seidenfeld (1999) give positive decision-theoretic reasons to take finite additivity seriously. ↩︎

4. See the Appendix for the full proof sketch of the uncountable case. ↩︎

5. This bears on Demski's posts on generalized Dutch-book arguments. If those arguments motivate EU representation, this result shows the further step to a dominance-respecting safety guarantee still does not follow. ↩︎

6. In fact, for every SEU representation, for every interior act , there exist infinitely many acts such that strictly dominates (or strictly dominates ) yet . The proof is the same: perturb by on the LSFA partition. ↩︎