That probably depends on what your pre-COVID-19 model was?

If I rephrase the question as "how much should COVID-19 update expert models about risks from pandemics", then my impression is that things have proceeded roughly in line with the pre-existing models. The response procedures that are now being activated in several countries are based on plans that were originally made as a reaction to previous diseases such as SARS.

My own update is that although there has been some feet-dragging, overall the national responses have felt stronger and faster than I would have anticipated. The next time that there is a pandemic, such a response should hopefully be more routine and competent, so this makes me more optimistic about our ability to deal with future pandemics.

March Coronavirus Open Thread

by Elizabeth 1 min read8th Mar 2020377 comments


This thread was created on 3/8/2020, or approximately one million years ago in virus time. It’s getting pretty bloated now, and a lot of things that were high value at the time have been eclipsed by events, making karma not a very useful sorting tool. So I’m declaring this thread finished, and asking everyone to move over to the April Coronavirus Open Thread.

Interested in what happened in this thread? Here’s the timeless or not-yet-eclipsed highlights:

  • Scott Alexander comes up with Hammer and Dance 6 days before Tomas Pueyo
  • Spiracular on why SARS-Cov-2 is unlikely to be lab-created.
  • Two documents collating estimates of basic epidemiological parameters, in response to this thread
  • Discussion on whether the tuberculosis vaccine provides protection against COVID-19.
  • Suggestive evidence that COVID-19 removes sense of taste and smell.
  • Could copper tape be net harmful?