Here's a link to a review, by The Economist, of a book about prediction, some of the common ways in which people make mistakes and some of the methods by which they could improve:
Looking ahead : How to look ahead—and get it right
One paragraph from that review:
A guiding light for Mr Silver is Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century English churchman and pioneer of probability theory. Uncertainty and subjectivity are inevitable, says Mr Silver. People should not get hung up on this, and instead think about the future the way gamblers do: “as speckles of probability”. In one surprising chapter, poker, a game from which Mr Silver once earned a living, emerges as a powerful teacher of the virtues of humility and patience.
Has anyone here read the book? What did you think of it? Would you recommend it?
I've read it - it's inspired a short series I shall be posting shortly.
ETA: not a chapter-by-chapter review, though I might do that too; rather, I focus on one small aspect (the "waterline" model discussed in connection with the poker bubble) and use it to illustrate something else (tips and tricks in forecasting).
I read it - I think the way I described it to the Less Wrong DC group was, "like an introductory Less Wrong article, except a book."
To elaborate a bit:
It's easy to read, and it's worth reading for the case studies, but I'd probably put it at a "Borrow" rather than a "Buy" recommendation.
ETA: The review you posted is good.
I've read and enjoyed a few chapters. One interesting theme is about why we have success predicting some things but not others. E.g., our ability to predict weather has actually improved in the past few decades, but there's been practically no progress for earthquakes.
There's relatively little about political prediction. I read his blog and enjoy that too, but I liked the broader perspective here.
Related (a bit): Rational Poker.
The current post is a nice compendium of biases.
It's also over a year old - suggesting the site has gone dormant...
sigh
On the other hand, it's not as though Bias 101 changes all that rapidly.