Most existing forecasting platform questions are for very clearly verifiable questions:
But many of the questions we care about are much less verifiable:
One solution attempt would be to have an "expert panel" assess these questions, but this opens up a bunch of issues. How could we know how much we could tr
Making long term predictions is hard. That's a fundamental problem. Having proxies can be convenient, but it's not going to tell you anything you don't already know.