This is a special post for quick takes by RobertM. Only they can create top-level comments. Comments here also appear on the Quick Takes page and All Posts page.
I don't think the recent METR publication provides very much new additional information that wasn't available to anyone already using Opus 5.5 in their day job over the last month, and think that people are updating too hard on numbers that aren't good proxies for the qualitative factors that should actually matter for capabilities trendlines and RSI forecasting.
I think it's useful to see what the trajectory / acceleration looks like post-Mythos. The post-Mythos models[1] with the Navier-Stokes model and presumably Fable 5.5 have very little known about them despite having been ready for what is likely months and seemingly being enormous leaps forwards.
Astra and Opus 5.5 are definitely "post-Mythos" but I mean the really strong models they appear to have internally that seem like another Mythos level step change. Or maybe the trend lines just hold and its just another 15% jump.