Aside from the high uncertainty they admit for their estimate, I feel highly uncertain about what it means if true.

If a researcher spends 2 hours a day doing real research and 6 hours doing easy bullshit, and you give them an AI that can do easy bullshit, now they can spend 8 hours doing real research. Congratulations, that's a 4x speedup! It doesn't necessarily imply the AI is anywhere close to being able to take over the remaining 2 hours and do the real research itself. It also doesn't not mean that.

2x speedup, okay, but are we on the verge of RSI, or do we just have an AI that can do easy bullshit? I find the 2x figure doesn't tell me which world we're in.