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Objection 2: this loses out on possible gains from acausal trade. E.g. if a paperclip-maximizer finds itself in a universe where it's hard to make paperclips but easy to make staples, it'd like to be able to give resources to staple-maximizers in exchange for them building more paperclips in universes where that's easier. This requires a kind of updateless decision theory:
Proposal 3: they merge into an agent which maximizes a weighted sum of their utilities (with those weights evolving over time), where the weights are set by bargaining subject to the constraint that each agent obeys commitments that logically earlier versions of itself would have made.
Objection 3: this faces the commitment races problem, where each agent wants to make earlier and earlier commitments to only accept good deals.
Proposal 4: same as proposal 3 but each agent also obeys commitments that they would have made from behind a veil of ignorance where they didn't yet know who they were or what their values were. From that position, they wouldn't have wanted to do future destructive commitment races.
Objection 4: as we take this to the limit we abstract away every aspect of each agent—their values, beliefs, position in the world, etc—until everything is decided by their prior from behind a veil of ignorance. But when you don't know who you are, or what your values are, how do you know what your prior is?
Proposal 5: all these commitments are only useful if they're credible to other agents. So, behind the veil, choose a Schelling prior which is both clearly non-cherrypicked and also easy for a wide range of agents to reason about. In other words, choose the prior which is most conducive to cooperation across the multiverse.
Okay, so basically we've ended up describing not just an ideal agent, but the ideal agent. The cost of this, of course, is that we've made it totally computationally intractable. In a later post I'll describe some approximations which might make it more relevant.
I don't understand your point here, explain?
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This seems to be claiming that in some multiverses, the gains to powerful agents from being hawkish outweigh the losses to weak agents. But then why is this a problem? It just seems like the optimal outcome.
Say there are 5 different veils of ignorance (priors) that most minds consider Schelling (you could try to argue there will be exactly one, but I don't see why).
If everyone simply accepted exactly the same one, then yes, lots of nice things would happen and you wouldn't get catastrophically inefficient conflict.
But every one of these 5 priors will have different outcomes when it is implemented by everyone. For example, maybe in prior 3 agent A is slightly better off and agent B is slightly worse off.
It seems to me that agent's strategy in the limit will either be null action or evolution-dictated action, not sure which. That is, "in universe where it's easy to do A the agent will choose to do A" somewhat implies "according to how easy it is for agent doing A to gain more optimization power, actions will be chosen" which is essentially evolution.