There is a large set of people who went around, and are still are going around, telling people that "The coronavirus is nothing to worry about" despite the fact that robust evidence has existed for about a month that this virus could result in a global disaster. (Don't believe me? I wrote a post a month ago about it).

So many people have bought into the "Don't worry about it" syndrome as a case of pretending to be wise, that I have become more pessimistic about humanity correctly responding to global catastrophic risks in the future. I too used to be one of those people who assumed that the default mode of thinking for an event like this was panic, but I'm starting to think that the real default mode is actually high status people going around saying, "Let's not be like that ambiguous group over there panicking."

Now that the stock market has plummeted, from what my perspective appeared entirely predictable given my inside view information, I am also starting to doubt the efficiency of the stock market in response to historically unprecedented events. And this outbreak could be even worse than even some of the most doomy media headlines are saying. If epidemiologists like the one in this article are right, and the death rate ends up being 2-3% (which seems plausible, especially if world infrastructure is strained), then we are looking at a mainline death count of between 60-160 million people dead within about a year. That could mark the first time that world population dropped in over 350 years.

This is not just a normal flu. It's not just a "thing that takes out old people who are going to die anyway." This could be like economic depression-level stuff, and is a big deal!